YouTube 1. I had no idea Teslas weighed so much 2. Here is one going 10.4
- Thread starter Mook
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you're certainly in the minority, although there's a fair amount of people out there with nasty commutes.
are you driving for work to cover a territory or do you just have some nightmare commute from A to B, and why not move if the latter? that is wild.
when i was an intern, i went to the city and took the train from the start of the line up here in fox lake. just the metra portion was 90 min each way. this did suck but at least i could do other shit on the train.
you're certainly in the minority, although there's a fair amount of people out there with nasty commutes.
are you driving for work to cover a territory or do you just have some nightmare commute from A to B, and why not move if the latter? that is wild.
when i was an intern, i went to the city and took the train from the start of the line up here in fox lake. just the metra portion was 90 min each way. this did suck but at least i could do other shit on the train.
Normal commute. I've also did many years of the long metra commute to / from the city. Has its pros / cons.
The expressways are rather packed north / south and east / west.
Maybe an outlier when comparing to the whole US; however, in the Chicagoland area a longer commute is more of the norm.
My reference was longer commute.
5 mins recharge, 350+ miles out of each charge, then sign us all up.
Cummins acquires electric drivetrain startup Brammo to help bring its electric truck to market
Nothing to see here... Just one of the leading manufactures of Diesel engines recognizing that soon we'll all be bowing down to our electric overlords.
Nothing to see here... Just one of the leading manufactures of Diesel engines recognizing that soon we'll all be bowing down to our electric overlords.
It's my whole point Mike!
It starts as a trickle and then gradually increases until the faucet is fully open. People want to argue about where the market is going and why I'm making statements like the internal combustion engine is dead and here you have one of the largest manufacturers of Diesel engines in the world making a substantial movement to electrification. It sounds some people are debating different things in this thread though. It seems some are debating IF we'll get the point when that faucet is wide open and ICE disappears and others aren't necessarily raging that it won't happen but debating WHEN it will. To me, it's not an if but a when. So I lose the people making the if argument right off the bat. And I also think it's going to happen on a timetable quicker than anyone here thinks it will so also I lose the people that agree with me but think it's going to happen decades down the road. To me, you compare the trajectory of pack cost decrease and charging speed increase, compare that to volatile cost of fuel and the flat costs of internal combustion engines and it's a no brainer that it's happening very soon.
This will upend the short haul industry but I think you know that. I looked back over some somewhat recent posts and it looks like the benefit to short haul was one of the things you and I agreed on. I wonder what cost is for a traditional short haul truck is though, say a UPS truck. I suspect that's going to be an easy market to penetrate, especially when you consider how those vehicles are used, how much time they idle, how the engines are always being turned on and off, etc. They are screaming for electrification.
The discussion of the difference between information technologies and normal improvements is lengthy and pointless for this topic. Even if you believed battery tech is not exponential, you only have to extend a linear line a little ways to see when it overtakes gas for an energy source.
-Commutes and filling the tank.
----The ONLY reason you think like you do is because you're used to an ICE and haven't owned an electric. The first question people always ask me is 'how far can you go on a charge'. People cannot help but compare the vehicle to their own habits of use. Think of it like this. What if I asked you how long it takes to fill your cell phone and where do you go to fill it? You wouldn't understand because you are used to just plugging it in. What if I told you I was coming out with a cell phone that had a fuel cell that lasted a week but you have to take it to a store to fill it with juice and pay them $10. Would you buy one? No, you'd laugh.
Once you have an electric, you realize that having home charging is SOOOO much better than going to a station. In fact, it's one of Tesla owners listed favorite things. I would agree. Fun fact, Tesla owners are measurably less sick as gas stations are the #2 spreader of colds/germs. https://www.ecowatch.com/gas-pump-germs-2013849186.html
Because the car is full every day, you don't really worry about charge times NOW, as tech improves and more fast chargers appear, even less.
-You commute 135 miles per day. Fill up EOD. That's nearly $100/week in gas. With an electric you'd earn at least $250 more per month TAKE HOME. You'd only need to fast charge if you forgot to charge 2 nights in a row. But the car gives you reminders. If you did, at current fast charge speeds, you'd have to charge for 15 minutes.
-Commutes and filling the tank.
----The ONLY reason you think like you do is because you're used to an ICE and haven't owned an electric. The first question people always ask me is 'how far can you go on a charge'. People cannot help but compare the vehicle to their own habits of use. Think of it like this. What if I asked you how long it takes to fill your cell phone and where do you go to fill it? You wouldn't understand because you are used to just plugging it in. What if I told you I was coming out with a cell phone that had a fuel cell that lasted a week but you have to take it to a store to fill it with juice and pay them $10. Would you buy one? No, you'd laugh.
Once you have an electric, you realize that having home charging is SOOOO much better than going to a station. In fact, it's one of Tesla owners listed favorite things. I would agree. Fun fact, Tesla owners are measurably less sick as gas stations are the #2 spreader of colds/germs. https://www.ecowatch.com/gas-pump-germs-2013849186.html
Because the car is full every day, you don't really worry about charge times NOW, as tech improves and more fast chargers appear, even less.
-You commute 135 miles per day. Fill up EOD. That's nearly $100/week in gas. With an electric you'd earn at least $250 more per month TAKE HOME. You'd only need to fast charge if you forgot to charge 2 nights in a row. But the car gives you reminders. If you did, at current fast charge speeds, you'd have to charge for 15 minutes.
This is the point I don't understand why people aren't grasping. You car argue exponential versus linear until you're blue in the face but getting caught up on that one point is entirely irrelevant because ICE powertrains are not getting cheaper. The lines will cross. It is inevitable and and only becomes more inevitable with every passing day as more and more companies throw their hat in the ring. This is why I don't get why a few of you are mocking my statements about the internal combustion engine being on life support.
I think the difference in viewpoints is not about understanding the technology, but rather the rate of proliferation of the technology. I don't disagree with a lot of what you and [MENTION=396]Mike K[/MENTION] are saying, but my difference is the speed of adoption and advance of improvements that keep people from buying electric vehicles (range, charging, etc.) . Mike said that the ICE is on life support and my viewpoint differs in that timeline. I think the ICE has 20-30 years globally before EV sales become the majority.
This seems to be a noteworthy update:
https://www.autoblog.com/2017/10/24/toshiba-scib-ev-battery-breakthrough-200-miles-charge-6-minutes/
200 miles of what, a leaf or a tesla? these articles are annoying, probably written by clueless writers worth so little they put zero effort into researching or understanding what they are posting about, shit is just bait. i hate lazy internet "news" authors
What's stopping it? 20 - 30 years before ICE doesn't represent the majority of sales? I'd say it's closer to 5.
We're at the inflection point right now and the thing is it's all so obvious. You don't need to be a super-genius to see it. We all seem to agree that once we've reached parity it's lights out for ICE and that's the only point I'm making when I say ICE is dead. It's dead technology. You could improve it by a factor of ten and you'd never be able to eliminate it's shortcomings and there will be no breakthrough that suddenly makes it cheaper to manufacture. So since we all seem to agree that once we've reached parity ICE is dead, it seems all we disagree on is when that's going to happen and that's the easy part.
Assume no new interest in battery technology, which isn't realistic at all but let's assume that's the case. We can assume ICE drivetrains are not only not getting cheaper to manufacture but are getting modestly more expensive. So right off the bat you can see that ICE drivetrains have flatlined in terms of costs and are actually starting to increase in recent years whereas electric drivetrains continue to follow their trajectory downward with no signs of stopping. Not only will they get cheaper; they'll get a lot cheaper. You can do the same with charging, the same with charge speeds, the same with range, etc. Any metric naysayers cling to as the one that needs to be overcome before mass adoption is already relatively close to parity and is following a trajectory that will put it beyond parity very soon.
At that point who will buy ICE vehicles? Nobody but enthusiasts. The transition will happen faster than anyone thinks because very suddenly it won't make any sense to buy an internal combustion vehicle. But you won't even have that choice for long because once it does hit price parity, it won't make sense for these for-profit companies to make less efficient powertrains with thousands of parts that they have to warranty.
So again, the argument is when do we hit parity and I think very conservatively you're looking at just a few years. My guess is within 5 years electric is capturing at least 50% of the major automotive markets and almost all of the short haul new purchases (buses, UPS trucks, etc). It will trickle down as it is now with the last segments to switch over being the ultra-cheap economy cars. And to be clear, I'm not saying 50% of the cars on the road; I'm saying new sales. UPS probably isn't going to ditch a bunch of 2 - 3 year old trucks to buy new electric trucks but they'll buy them as older trucks come up for replacement.
To be clear though, 100% ICE is dead. Stick a fork in it. It's gone. Electrification is 100% the future. In my opinion the only thing you could debate there is the power source. Maybe there's some huge breakthrough there, maybe not. Maybe in 30 years we'll all be driving around electric cars with tiny fusion reactors for the power source but they will 100% be electric cars, not shitty old complicated internal combustion engines. I'm as much of an enthusiast as anyone else here but come on... In the grand scope of things ICE is such a relic now and it will only become more apparent with time.
Save this post. Print it and stick it on your fridge and if in 5 years I'm more wrong than I am right, you can shame me. I won't be though.
I think the biggest thing you are overlooking [MENTION=396]Mike K[/MENTION], (and truth be told, maybe you aren't i haven't read this thread since I derailed it) is that the car & truck buyers of the US do not use logic when purchasing vehicles. they use emotions. they buy what they want, not what they need or should have.
I mean minivan's make the most sense for the majority of families out there, yet they are a tough sell
the new hybrid pacifica is rated at 84mpge, yet i've yet to see any
until something DRASTIC happens/changes, I don't think people will change their buying habits.
that's why pickup trucks sell in droves, or 4wd vehicles in general, not because most people need them, but because they want them.
3/4 ton long bed to drop the kids off at soccer?
FUCK YEAH
because maaaaaaaybe i'll go buy a camper some day, that's why I bought a truck.
denali's and escalade's are up 10% over last year
there is 0 logic to buy one of those, and GM could put pink dildos on the roof's of each vehicle, and they would still sell.
right, cuz if there was actually a stat that showed Tesla owners were healthier than non-tesla owners, it wouldn't have anything to do with Tesla owners having better health insurance, more money, living in nicer places etc.
So this either works one way. In 5 years I come back and say you’re wrong or vice versa. If you’re right, there would be over 8.8 MILLION EV vehicles sold (assuming no market growth to the US auto industry) in the US by 2022. 5 years is basically the next generation vehicle for all of the major manufactures as that’s the R&D to Job #1 time. That’s a big shift in one generation of vehicles, particularly in a product that is untested in mass markets and consumers are still leery of jumping over from ICE’s. I don’t see that happening, so let’s agree to disagree
Gas pumps are germ magnets, but EV's owners still will need to touch public charger plugs, so I think it's a moot point.
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