This semi-regular column is written (in his own blood) by an automotive sage and noted malcontent, known as The Mechanic. Mercilessly beaten as a child with rolled-up back issues of old car magazines, our free-spoken hero developed a unique "for your own good" take on cars and the auto industry, along with an unfortunate habit of setting himself ablaze. Later, after a distinguished career as an automotive journalist and magazine editor, he cast off the reins of his musty oppressors, carved out his superego with a plastic spork and became The Mechanic.
As 2009 hits the Great Dumpster of Memory, I've decided to binge on the wife's hard egg nog, reflect on what I've learned over the last 12 months and tell you what it all means for our future. Your future. Now self-reflection doesn't come easily to me, so when I do reflect I don't get nostalgic or weepy. I usually just get pissed off all over again.
Not that 2010 isn't going to be a great year. It is. But it ain't all going to be beers on the beach either. In fact, the auto industry has a critical 365 days ahead of it. It's sink or swim time for everybody.
Anyway, here's what I see clogging our automotive sewer line over the next 12 months. Happy New Year.
10. Ugly Hatchbacks
Shaped like cockroaches, uglier than a hog's butt and an answer to a question no sane person has ever asked, how is that the Acura ZDX, BMW 5 Series Gran Turismo and Honda Accord Crosstour oozed into existence? Why are BMW and Honda building their own versions of the Pontiac Aztek? I'd say this trend has to be stopped, but I'm pretty sure the market will punish these manufacturers for foisting such misbegotten machines upon us.
Look for: By the end of January, dealers will be offering massive discounts to clear these five-door dogs off their lots.
9. The Chevrolet Volt
I can't wait for the Chevy Volt to go on sale, simply because I'm sick of reading about it. GM has been leaking details on this car for so long it's become the Chinese water torture of product launches - drip, drip, drip, drip. I don't care what conniptions and contrivances the engineers have had to go through, I just want it to work. After all, it's my tax money that's paying for it.
But I'm not convinced that anyone will pay more than $30K (that's after a $7,500 government rebate) for a car that's a kissing cousin to the Cruze, which isn't far from being the Cobalt and way too close to being the Cavalier. And I'm not convinced GM can make any money on the Volt even when it's priced at $40K. It should have been a Cadillac all along.
Look for: The Mechanic has driven Volt prototypes and has been impressed. I give the Volt a strong 80 percent chance of being a technical success but only a 50/50 shot at being a commercial success.
8. Bob Lutz Goes Back to Chrysler
No automotive executive has had a longer or more varied career than Bob Lutz. He's been a VP at Ford, he was VP of sales at BMW, he was president of Chrysler and right now he's the vice chairman of General Motors. He turns 78 this coming February and is still running hard and strong.
But Bob Lutz is about to run into Ed Whitacre. The current "interim" CEO at GM, Whitacre doesn't have a clue how to run a car company and owes all his allegiance to the government that has bailed GM out. At some point Whitacre's ignorance is going to set Lutz off and that will send Lutz off to his next adventure.
So the Italians running Chrysler may as well snag Lutz and give him whatever little chance there is at that company to make it work again. Of course it's an all but impossible job, as Chrysler is even more beholden to the government than GM is, but no one but Lutz has the stature to even give it a solid run at succeeding.
Look for: Lutz will be out of GM by March and into Chrysler by May. Assuming, of course, that Chrysler lasts that long.
7. The Electric Car Swindle
Last September Fisker Automotive secured a $529 million loan from the United States federal government to support the development of its Karma all-electric sedan. That comes atop the $465 million Tesla got from the government to support its future product development. It's bad enough that my tax money is going to bail out basket cases like Citibank, but do I also have to spend money so Henrik Fisker can get rich? And, not that I resent it or anything, but Fisker is Danish!
The truth is that neither Tesla nor Fisker has ever produced a commercially viable all-electric car. Sure the Tesla Roadster is interesting, but it costs more than $100K, only seats two and has never worked as the hype promised. But while their electric cars are mostly vaporware, both companies have smartly plugged themselves into the Democratic Party's power structure and sucked out the juice of those big loans as rewards.
Frankly, I don't think the government should be in the business of giving out money to any company. But at least I'd have thought such money would go out to companies that have actually produced something.
Look for: Inevitable announcements around, oh May, from both Fisker and Tesla that it's really tough to come up with viable electric cars and that they'll need more of our money to do it.
6. The Camaro Hits a Wall
Go onto Chevy's Web site right now. Want a Cobalt, Traverse or Malibu? You'll get $1,500 back. Buy an HHR or Impala and you'll get a grand. But if you want a Camaro you get zilch. That's simply because the Camaro is selling spectacularly well. But that's not going to last.
The Camaro has a lot going for it - great engines, showcar styling, a solid chassis - but it's a coupe and while it's fresh now, it only has a fashion-conscious half-life of about a year in the market. By the middle of 2010, it's just going to be another car looking for buyers.
Look for: An upcoming supercharged Z28 and Camaro convertible will produce sales blips, but the mania is over.
5. Death to the Tundra
Some of The Mechanic's best friends drive Toyota Tundras. And Mrs. The Mechanic has frequently been seen behind the wheel of the Tundra-based Sequoia SUV. But forget it. The Tundra is doomed.
During 2009 the Tundra sold at about one-fifth the rate that Ford sells F-150s. In fact, Toyota isn't going to move more than about 75,000 of them during 2009, though it had predicted volumes somewhere around 200,000 when it opened that nice, expensive plant to build the truck in San Antonio. Considering that the big, bad second-generation Tundra has been a turd for Toyota, it's likely there won't be a third-generation Tundra.
Toyota is already moving the compact Tacoma into the San Antonio plant. It ought to just add a V8 option to that truck.
Look for: Toyota will announce the Tundra's pending death sometime around April.
4. Michael Schumacher's Comeback Will Tank
I'm suspicious of comebacks. Lance Armstrong won't win another Tour de France, Brett Favre is going to fall apart in the playoffs, and Michael Jackson dropped dead before he could get his comeback tour moving. And Michael Schumacher won't even get on a single Formula 1 podium with his new Mercedes-Benz team during 2010.
When he retired back in 2006 Schumacher was 37 years old - ancient by F1 standards. He turns an agonizing 41 this January 3 which is just about the age when you get bifocals, wake up to piss three times a night, and your knees start to feel like they've been TIG welded into place. There's no way Schumacher's reflexes will be able to keep up with the demands of racing an F1 car at the Grand Prix level. He'll be lucky to get into the car each week without breaking his hip.
Look for: Schumacher's frustration at his inability to perform will be apparent by the third race of the season. By the middle of the season, he'll announce his second retirement.
3. Subaru Becomes Honda
It used to be that Subaru was just a quirky also-ran in the car market...a car bought by people who owned more than six cats and knew how to tap a maple tree. But during 2009 Subaru's market share grew by a massive 49.2 percent as mainstream buyers embraced such mainstream products as the excellent Forester small SUV and dang fine Outback sort-of-an-SUV. And for us hard-core gearheads, Subaru is still making the WRX and WRX STI.
Subaru is picking up Honda's dropped ball. As Hondas have grown bigger and more boring, the Subies have become more engaging and more fun to drive. Subaru is now where Honda was in 1990: the Japanese brand for buyers with sophisticated tastes and modest budgets.
Look for: Subaru to increase its market share another 50 percent during 2010. And for the world to ask why the only engaging car Honda has left is the modest Civic Si.
2. Bye-Bye Mercury
Alan Mulally has proven to be an inspired leader at Ford - the guy is no dummy. So there has to be a smart reason behind the decision to give the Ford division a new Taurus, but not give Mercury a new Sable. Mercury itself is in the deep doo-doo of doom.
Right now the entire Mercury lineup consists of just four vehicles: Milan sedan, Mariner crossover, Mountaineer SUV and Grand Marquis Medicare mobile. The Milan is just a riff on the Ford Fusion, the Mariner a rip of the Escape, the Mountaineer is based on the soon-to-be-euthanized Explorer and the Grand Marquis is available only on special order. When the Mountaineer and Grand Marquis go away, what's the point of keeping Mercury around at all?
In summary, it's a goner by summer. Yeah, I know. You saw it coming, too.
Look for: Ford will put its marketing dollars behind Lincoln as it takes on Cadillac directly. And newly unemployed Mercury spokes-babe Jill Wagner will become the next Mrs. The Mechanic.
1. Korea Rules America
Hyundai increased its market share a big 40.4 percent and Kia wasn't far behind. Right now the Korean carmakers pretty much own the value-driven end of the market and during 2010 they're only going to get stronger. So what's next after that? Domination.
Look for: Hyundai will announce new pushes to establish itself as a more mainstream brand. Maybe a few new racing initiatives...and a pickup truck announcement before the year ends.
As 2009 hits the Great Dumpster of Memory, I've decided to binge on the wife's hard egg nog, reflect on what I've learned over the last 12 months and tell you what it all means for our future. Your future. Now self-reflection doesn't come easily to me, so when I do reflect I don't get nostalgic or weepy. I usually just get pissed off all over again.
Not that 2010 isn't going to be a great year. It is. But it ain't all going to be beers on the beach either. In fact, the auto industry has a critical 365 days ahead of it. It's sink or swim time for everybody.
Anyway, here's what I see clogging our automotive sewer line over the next 12 months. Happy New Year.
10. Ugly Hatchbacks
Shaped like cockroaches, uglier than a hog's butt and an answer to a question no sane person has ever asked, how is that the Acura ZDX, BMW 5 Series Gran Turismo and Honda Accord Crosstour oozed into existence? Why are BMW and Honda building their own versions of the Pontiac Aztek? I'd say this trend has to be stopped, but I'm pretty sure the market will punish these manufacturers for foisting such misbegotten machines upon us.
Look for: By the end of January, dealers will be offering massive discounts to clear these five-door dogs off their lots.
9. The Chevrolet Volt
I can't wait for the Chevy Volt to go on sale, simply because I'm sick of reading about it. GM has been leaking details on this car for so long it's become the Chinese water torture of product launches - drip, drip, drip, drip. I don't care what conniptions and contrivances the engineers have had to go through, I just want it to work. After all, it's my tax money that's paying for it.
But I'm not convinced that anyone will pay more than $30K (that's after a $7,500 government rebate) for a car that's a kissing cousin to the Cruze, which isn't far from being the Cobalt and way too close to being the Cavalier. And I'm not convinced GM can make any money on the Volt even when it's priced at $40K. It should have been a Cadillac all along.
Look for: The Mechanic has driven Volt prototypes and has been impressed. I give the Volt a strong 80 percent chance of being a technical success but only a 50/50 shot at being a commercial success.
8. Bob Lutz Goes Back to Chrysler
No automotive executive has had a longer or more varied career than Bob Lutz. He's been a VP at Ford, he was VP of sales at BMW, he was president of Chrysler and right now he's the vice chairman of General Motors. He turns 78 this coming February and is still running hard and strong.
But Bob Lutz is about to run into Ed Whitacre. The current "interim" CEO at GM, Whitacre doesn't have a clue how to run a car company and owes all his allegiance to the government that has bailed GM out. At some point Whitacre's ignorance is going to set Lutz off and that will send Lutz off to his next adventure.
So the Italians running Chrysler may as well snag Lutz and give him whatever little chance there is at that company to make it work again. Of course it's an all but impossible job, as Chrysler is even more beholden to the government than GM is, but no one but Lutz has the stature to even give it a solid run at succeeding.
Look for: Lutz will be out of GM by March and into Chrysler by May. Assuming, of course, that Chrysler lasts that long.
7. The Electric Car Swindle
Last September Fisker Automotive secured a $529 million loan from the United States federal government to support the development of its Karma all-electric sedan. That comes atop the $465 million Tesla got from the government to support its future product development. It's bad enough that my tax money is going to bail out basket cases like Citibank, but do I also have to spend money so Henrik Fisker can get rich? And, not that I resent it or anything, but Fisker is Danish!
The truth is that neither Tesla nor Fisker has ever produced a commercially viable all-electric car. Sure the Tesla Roadster is interesting, but it costs more than $100K, only seats two and has never worked as the hype promised. But while their electric cars are mostly vaporware, both companies have smartly plugged themselves into the Democratic Party's power structure and sucked out the juice of those big loans as rewards.
Frankly, I don't think the government should be in the business of giving out money to any company. But at least I'd have thought such money would go out to companies that have actually produced something.
Look for: Inevitable announcements around, oh May, from both Fisker and Tesla that it's really tough to come up with viable electric cars and that they'll need more of our money to do it.
6. The Camaro Hits a Wall
Go onto Chevy's Web site right now. Want a Cobalt, Traverse or Malibu? You'll get $1,500 back. Buy an HHR or Impala and you'll get a grand. But if you want a Camaro you get zilch. That's simply because the Camaro is selling spectacularly well. But that's not going to last.
The Camaro has a lot going for it - great engines, showcar styling, a solid chassis - but it's a coupe and while it's fresh now, it only has a fashion-conscious half-life of about a year in the market. By the middle of 2010, it's just going to be another car looking for buyers.
Look for: An upcoming supercharged Z28 and Camaro convertible will produce sales blips, but the mania is over.
5. Death to the Tundra
Some of The Mechanic's best friends drive Toyota Tundras. And Mrs. The Mechanic has frequently been seen behind the wheel of the Tundra-based Sequoia SUV. But forget it. The Tundra is doomed.
During 2009 the Tundra sold at about one-fifth the rate that Ford sells F-150s. In fact, Toyota isn't going to move more than about 75,000 of them during 2009, though it had predicted volumes somewhere around 200,000 when it opened that nice, expensive plant to build the truck in San Antonio. Considering that the big, bad second-generation Tundra has been a turd for Toyota, it's likely there won't be a third-generation Tundra.
Toyota is already moving the compact Tacoma into the San Antonio plant. It ought to just add a V8 option to that truck.
Look for: Toyota will announce the Tundra's pending death sometime around April.
4. Michael Schumacher's Comeback Will Tank
I'm suspicious of comebacks. Lance Armstrong won't win another Tour de France, Brett Favre is going to fall apart in the playoffs, and Michael Jackson dropped dead before he could get his comeback tour moving. And Michael Schumacher won't even get on a single Formula 1 podium with his new Mercedes-Benz team during 2010.
When he retired back in 2006 Schumacher was 37 years old - ancient by F1 standards. He turns an agonizing 41 this January 3 which is just about the age when you get bifocals, wake up to piss three times a night, and your knees start to feel like they've been TIG welded into place. There's no way Schumacher's reflexes will be able to keep up with the demands of racing an F1 car at the Grand Prix level. He'll be lucky to get into the car each week without breaking his hip.
Look for: Schumacher's frustration at his inability to perform will be apparent by the third race of the season. By the middle of the season, he'll announce his second retirement.
3. Subaru Becomes Honda
It used to be that Subaru was just a quirky also-ran in the car market...a car bought by people who owned more than six cats and knew how to tap a maple tree. But during 2009 Subaru's market share grew by a massive 49.2 percent as mainstream buyers embraced such mainstream products as the excellent Forester small SUV and dang fine Outback sort-of-an-SUV. And for us hard-core gearheads, Subaru is still making the WRX and WRX STI.
Subaru is picking up Honda's dropped ball. As Hondas have grown bigger and more boring, the Subies have become more engaging and more fun to drive. Subaru is now where Honda was in 1990: the Japanese brand for buyers with sophisticated tastes and modest budgets.
Look for: Subaru to increase its market share another 50 percent during 2010. And for the world to ask why the only engaging car Honda has left is the modest Civic Si.
2. Bye-Bye Mercury
Alan Mulally has proven to be an inspired leader at Ford - the guy is no dummy. So there has to be a smart reason behind the decision to give the Ford division a new Taurus, but not give Mercury a new Sable. Mercury itself is in the deep doo-doo of doom.
Right now the entire Mercury lineup consists of just four vehicles: Milan sedan, Mariner crossover, Mountaineer SUV and Grand Marquis Medicare mobile. The Milan is just a riff on the Ford Fusion, the Mariner a rip of the Escape, the Mountaineer is based on the soon-to-be-euthanized Explorer and the Grand Marquis is available only on special order. When the Mountaineer and Grand Marquis go away, what's the point of keeping Mercury around at all?
In summary, it's a goner by summer. Yeah, I know. You saw it coming, too.
Look for: Ford will put its marketing dollars behind Lincoln as it takes on Cadillac directly. And newly unemployed Mercury spokes-babe Jill Wagner will become the next Mrs. The Mechanic.
1. Korea Rules America
Hyundai increased its market share a big 40.4 percent and Kia wasn't far behind. Right now the Korean carmakers pretty much own the value-driven end of the market and during 2010 they're only going to get stronger. So what's next after that? Domination.
Look for: Hyundai will announce new pushes to establish itself as a more mainstream brand. Maybe a few new racing initiatives...and a pickup truck announcement before the year ends.
