I'm sure they'll stick with red bull, prob just buy back the IP that RB bought and hire back any employees that RB took over. They can't walk away from the success that RB is currently seeing with honda engines. The 2026 engines being cheaper to produce surely helped as well.
If RB was a midfield team, i bet honda would have been gone not long after announcing it their departure in 2021 (or was it 2020? idk).
Well, I can't see them partnering up with McLaren, even if it was McLaren being the dicks during the past partnership.
Ferrari, well, Ferrari
Haas - Ferrari
Alfa will be getting Porsche
Mercedes has their factory team, plus Aston and Williams. Aston won't go their own way and likes the Merc engines. Williams has been a long-time partner with Merc as well. I strongly suspect that the Bottas-to-Mercedes trade included giving up Paddy Lowe to Williams (who has since left to do his own synthetic fuel business).
Alpha Tauri uses the Honda engine as well. Can't see Honda doing just a support team.
What would be good, is if the FIA and "elite" teams would get their heads out of each others asses and let Andretti Motorsport in as a team. Then let Andretti run Honda engines cause they're already partnered up in Indy car. Seems like a no brainer.
Edit - Alpine has Renault, and will likely be sticking with them long term.