Apocalypse Investment thread.

importcrew

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Does any $MVIS investors want me to post up any updates? IAA starts this week (technically today was press day and tomorrow is the official start). New information is coming out such as images from the show, documentation, photo of their lidar live feed at the show, ect. If people would like, I could post up those same images being posted elsewhere from those who are attending the show. This week can be potentially huge for the company. It will show public validation of what they've been mentioning for a long while now.
 

importcrew

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There are a few investors that I know of that went to the show in Germany. So far, one person has been posting up some images (I believe he has a press pass). There haven't been any official announcements of any kind, nor do I think they will announce any partnerships. Maybe they will (great catalyst), but I believe the point of the show is to show off their lidar finally and prove what they have been saying on paper is what is factual in real life. They did mention at their last earnings call that they will post of videos during and after the show. Question is; At what point will they post? Another thing to note is that one of the investors had a chat with one of the most recent hires at MicroVision. Dr. Luce is the person I believe will be in charge of the Germany HQ they're opening up. The one investor was asking him about his opinion compared to the competitors. His statement was basically along the lines of that $MVIS is going to be the goto product as they have the market and production experience. Also his opinion on that companies wouldn't go with startups as if there was a glitch to their production pipeline, then it would create huge problems for the buyer. We have already started ramping up our production line. We're ready to start making sales in q4 of this year whereas nobody else is. They're not ready and won't be ready no earlier than I believe q2 of 2022 (if I'm not mistaken). We can greatly increase our production if and when the orders come in by the time our competitors are just making their orders. I guess you can say that MicroVision is ahead of the game so far. I'm hoping this conference proves it. It will at least validate their claims. Expect possible volitility. Also, the monthly time frame on the charts are showing a huge Bull Flag (it's a good thing). If that pans out and breaks out to the upside, we can see a PT of about $50 and $100. That will take time to pan out though. Or it can happen quickly. Never know with stocks. Lol.


Here are a few images from the booklet that they have at their area. I'm just copy/pasting, so the images aren't rotated. Also, some pics I post may come out huge. Lol.



This image is of the live feed from the lidar they have set up at their booth. So anybody or anything going past the lidar will show up on the display.

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E-QQyjJVIAIaPZt.jpg:large


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importcrew

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I’m assuming we’re seeing some heavy manipulation due to the prospect of good news as the week progresses? I’m happy. I was able to buy back in 100 of the 250 at less than I sold for. Waiting on the rest of the money to clear into my trading account.
The stock is being heavily shorted. The short interest has gone up the past couple days. Could be Big Money trying to bring it down and get a better entry, or could be Big Money trying to change everybody's sentiment. Who really knows. But it is being shorted. I honestly didn't expect it to drop this much. Losing out on my short term exp call options.

I do have to post up some more images that have been posted elsewhere. From a fellow investor who is at the show, he said that $MVIS has the better lidar sensor. Ours is also the cheapest and we're ready for production if need be. He talked to some of the competitors and I think it was Luminar who is already in contracts with a couple automakers but that is because those automakers wants to try to be the "first to market", whereas the other automakers are actually in talks to get the better quality and pricing. He (the fellow investor) has also posted up competitor videos of their live feed lidar demos, and theirs aren't as good as MicroVision's lidar (point density).

One thing I was hoping on (and kind of banking on) was some positive PR from the company, however, they have been relatively silent. But it has only been a couple days officially (whereas the 6th was Press Day). I'm waiting for the rest of this week and at least half of next week to determine my next move with the stock. I may reduce my position and take profits. I'm still optimistic of the outcome. Whether it be later this week, or early next week (after the show), I feel they will release some kind of PR that will help boost the stock price. We shall see.

When I have some more time later, I will post up more pics from the show.
 
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Outlaw

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The stock is being heavily shorted. The short interest has gone up the past couple days. Could be Big Money trying to bring it down and get a better entry, or could be Big Money trying to change everybody's sentiment. Who really knows. But it is being shorted. I honestly didn't expect it to drop this much. Losing out on my short term exp call options.

I do have to post up some more images that have been posted elsewhere. From a fellow investor who is at the show, he said that $MVIS has the better lidar sensor. Ours is also the cheapest and we're ready for production if need be. He talked to some of the competitors and I think it was Luminar who is already in contracts with a couple automakers but that is because those automakers wants to try to be the "first to market", whereas the other automakers are actually in talks to get the better quality and pricing. He (the fellow investor) has also posted up competitor videos of their live feed lidar demos, and theirs aren't as good as MicroVision's lidar (point density).

One thing I was hoping on (and kind of banking on) was some positive PR from the company, however, they have been relatively silent. But it has only been a couple days officially (whereas the 6th was Press Day). I'm waiting for the rest of this week and at least half of next week to determine my next move with the stock. I may reduce my position and take profits. I'm still optimistic of the outcome. Whether it be later this week, or early next week (after the show), I feel they will release some kind of PR that will help boost the stock price. We shall see.

When I have some more time later, I will post up more pics from the show.

Is MVIS just way too humble? It seems like they have a great opportunity to brag about this product but choose to just stay silent?
 

sickmint79

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Is MVIS just way too humble? It seems like they have a great opportunity to brag about this product but choose to just stay silent?

we are a bunch of naive small potatoes idiots on this forum just looking to confirm our own biases if invested in this platform.

what expertise in lidar do any of us have though? is that product really better, does it even matter? eg. if something works just as well with 10% of the data points, and is cheaper, what good is 100% - except you and i think the image looks cooler? what if the product is superior, but pricing/sales/agreements/etc. are crap? betamax was higher quality image and audio than vhs, yet they hardly one the videotape war. maybe the shorts are perfectly right and the company is overvalued, etc. i'm thinking all of us here are just gambling.
 

importcrew

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Is MVIS just way too humble? It seems like they have a great opportunity to brag about this product but choose to just stay silent?

Not that they're humble. They're focusing on what they know best. Just recently (this year) they went on a hiring spree to push their product further. One thing they don't really know is marketing. They've been public for almost 3 decades, but they never really worried much about marketing. They stayed in business developing products for the military (one being the heads up display for the Airforce). They're basically taking a crash course on marketing and they're not very good at it. Their primary focus is developing and being able to scale their lidar product in a relative close time frame. So it's not that they're humble (imo), it's the fact that they don't really know the marketing aspect of the business, nor who knows if they even really care. They've been working directly with OEM and Tier 1's developing this lidar product. Who do they need to really market their product to if this product is already being made to spec to the potential customers?

we are a bunch of naive small potatoes idiots on this forum just looking to confirm our own biases if invested in this platform.

I agree. What inexperienced investor in a stock wouldn't want personal validation that they made the right choice? Hell, I've been heavily day trading for a little while now and even though I've bought into this company at the bottom, I still like to see validation every once in a while.

what expertise in lidar do any of us have though? is that product really better, does it even matter? eg. if something works just as well with 10% of the data points, and is cheaper, what good is 100% - except you and i think the image looks cooler? what if the product is superior, but pricing/sales/agreements/etc. are crap? betamax was higher quality image and audio than vhs, yet they hardly one the videotape war. maybe the shorts are perfectly right and the company is overvalued, etc. i'm thinking all of us here are just gambling.

Now to answer on this, is MVIS's product better? Absolutely yes. Their product is the only product that have public specs put out to prove themselves. Hell, they only developed this product by DIRECTLY working with OEM and Tier 1 suppliers. So these specs are what the customers want. Only reason why this product couldn't get validated sooner was because of travel restrictions during Covid and couldn't have in person testing done. Point density is a very valuable tool with lidar. At the furthest claimed distance, MicroVision's lidar can hit 1.8M points per second. The more points that the product can hit, the more accurate the reading. The further out the distance, the less resolution the image is. So to have a higher point density at the furthest distance, gives a better and more accurate reading. Also, MicroVision's lidar is using 905nm lasers whereas the competitors are using (iirc) 1115nm or 1105nm lasers. MicroVision can get a smaller laser to work more accurate than the competitor while they use a bigger laser. This is a big feat in and of itself. Some of the competitors can't even bring their product out to market no earlier than mid next year (again, iirc) to 2024, whereas MicroVision is ready for production in Q4 of this year.

So is their product better, I believe so. But just like everybody else, I'm just a potato. I have read their specs and I try to keep up with the competitors as well. (Competitor units are bigger and more expensive). MicroVision's product is broken down to a set of 4 units to the specs of each customers wants; short range, mid range, long range, and dynamic (all ranges combined). Other competitor units costs several thousand whereas MicroVision's is just about $1k. Only thing is, I don't know if the $1k is no matter the unit range, or if it's for the lowest range, or the best premium unit (dynamic range). I guess I can email the investor relation guy and ask him.
 

importcrew

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Here is another comparison of 4 companies (one being MicroVision). Keep in mind, currently not sure what range lidar MicroVision is using for the live feed but assuming it's their short range lidar. All these pics consist of a still from each of their respective live feed at the IAA show.

MicroVision, Luminar, and Velodyne uses horizontal line scanning, whereas Continental is using vertical line scanning.


117zbtenkbm71.jpg
 

importcrew

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Well I’m glad I forgot to buy back in after my cash settled. Sold in the high 14’s a few weeks ago, bought back in at $12.90
Nice. I sold 200 shares this morning actually at open. I have 500 shares that I don't mind playing around with. Will see if we test new bottoms besides that 12.52 we hit today. There really isn't any volume and the entire Russel index has been shorted. Plus with the current overall market, a lot of sectors are weak. Only way $MVIS can really push up despite it being pulled down is with a good PR from either any company or the company itself that relates to anything that people want to hear (partnership mainly, or possibly IVAS news).

Until then, I will keep an eye on it and if we just generally drift lower with lower volume, I will also sell my 300 remaining of my 500 shares. I don't mind buying back at a higher price if I start to notice higher volatility with $MVIS.



Speaking of overall market ($SPY), it is weak!!! Be careful. We have the feds talking next week and will discuss tapering. It'll come back to whether our inflation is transitory or not and if they give their plan on tapering. We've been drifting lower and lower towards the 50ma on the daily chart. Normally when we just drop to that support line (it's usually quick), we bounce back the next day. Here, we just been drifting lower and lower towards it which signifies weakness. It's possible that the $SPY can hit that area and bounce back up, before it'll most likely come back down, but I wouldn't be surprised if that's what we're seeing here today (that bounce up). The 50ma is currently at the $442 and we've been at a big support line the last couple days around $443.25 - $443.50. If that 50ma line doesn't hold as support (which I have my doubts it will this time), I expect further downside towards $436ish, then lower $400's from there. There's A LOT of uncertainty right now in the markets, and we will have to see what the feds say next week. I've made a good amount of money the last few days with buying puts on the $SPY and I will be prepared if we start dropping. Of course keep in mind, you have big cap stocks that you can use as a general guide (Apple, Microsoft, Google, Tesla, ect). If you see those major companies going down, it's most likely bringing the $SPY down as well. Apple alone is about 6% of the $SPY. So be cautious.

WIth that said, time for me to take my wife shopping. Lol
 

importcrew

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was watching something on youtube about the market and they said September is always a low month in gains but October, November and December seem to be the best with gains. hoping for MVIS to take off soon!
Yes. I agree. September is a lower volume month overall (generally speaking, plus profit taking as well) as is Oct (right after Sept). But the market has also been making new highs on lower volume (not good). If what the feds say isn't bad and they say something harsh, then I think the market will continue upwards again like it has been. It comes down to what they say and how they say it.


And I agree with $MVIS. I want to see around $30-$40 so I can sell about 1k shares.
 
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sickmint79

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That article is even outdated. A 40-foot container was $30k last month. They are not even quoting prices now. In September a bunch cancelled all contracts for August pickup. "Fill a container and once it's picked up we'll get you a price.". Because it is hard to even get a empty 40-foort container, some companies are paying extra just to get them. To the tune of $10K or more. It's insanity.

They also can't move containers. I know someone that just paid $6,500 in storage fees because the container and logistic companies can't move them quick enough. It typically took 4 weeks to get our containers delivered once they were shipped. The last two containers took 14 weeks. It seems most people have no idea what kinds of price increases we are going to see. It's going to be another interesting year.
 

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LikeABauce302

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I have a feeling we are going to be seeing and feeling a ripple effect for 5-10 years. I know my company and many others are continuing to partially build products and set them aside to be completed when missing parts arrive. The demand is just going to keep stacking up. This is going to get worse before it gets better.
 

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