YouTube 1. I had no idea Teslas weighed so much 2. Here is one going 10.4

zooomer

Member
Sep 30, 2008
96
9
3 years after the thread started, beginning of 2020's.
Many major OEMs have ceased all development of gas engines.
Range, charge speed, charge locations, performance of electrics has improved drastically.
New electric vehicles and platforms have been announced by every manufacture.
Hydrogen is dead.
Prices have come down for electrics.
We've gone from 1% global sales to now at 3%
CA has banned gas vehicle sales starting 2035 (non issue, there won't be much by then)


It's almost like every prediction MIke and I made is spot on and in process. Who'd a thunk?
 

Yaj Yak

Gladys
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May 24, 2007
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What's stopping it? 20 - 30 years before ICE doesn't represent the majority of sales? I'd say it's closer to 5.

We're at the inflection point right now and the thing is it's all so obvious. You don't need to be a super-genius to see it. We all seem to agree that once we've reached parity it's lights out for ICE and that's the only point I'm making when I say ICE is dead. It's dead technology. You could improve it by a factor of ten and you'd never be able to eliminate it's shortcomings and there will be no breakthrough that suddenly makes it cheaper to manufacture. So since we all seem to agree that once we've reached parity ICE is dead, it seems all we disagree on is when that's going to happen and that's the easy part.

Assume no new interest in battery technology, which isn't realistic at all but let's assume that's the case. We can assume ICE drivetrains are not only not getting cheaper to manufacture but are getting modestly more expensive. So right off the bat you can see that ICE drivetrains have flatlined in terms of costs and are actually starting to increase in recent years whereas electric drivetrains continue to follow their trajectory downward with no signs of stopping. Not only will they get cheaper; they'll get a lot cheaper. You can do the same with charging, the same with charge speeds, the same with range, etc. Any metric naysayers cling to as the one that needs to be overcome before mass adoption is already relatively close to parity and is following a trajectory that will put it beyond parity very soon.

At that point who will buy ICE vehicles? Nobody but enthusiasts. The transition will happen faster than anyone thinks because very suddenly it won't make any sense to buy an internal combustion vehicle. But you won't even have that choice for long because once it does hit price parity, it won't make sense for these for-profit companies to make less efficient powertrains with thousands of parts that they have to warranty.

So again, the argument is when do we hit parity and I think very conservatively you're looking at just a few years. My guess is within 5 years electric is capturing at least 50% of the major automotive markets and almost all of the short haul new purchases (buses, UPS trucks, etc). It will trickle down as it is now with the last segments to switch over being the ultra-cheap economy cars. And to be clear, I'm not saying 50% of the cars on the road; I'm saying new sales. UPS probably isn't going to ditch a bunch of 2 - 3 year old trucks to buy new electric trucks but they'll buy them as older trucks come up for replacement.

To be clear though, 100% ICE is dead. Stick a fork in it. It's gone. Electrification is 100% the future. In my opinion the only thing you could debate there is the power source. Maybe there's some huge breakthrough there, maybe not. Maybe in 30 years we'll all be driving around electric cars with tiny fusion reactors for the power source but they will 100% be electric cars, not shitty old complicated internal combustion engines. I'm as much of an enthusiast as anyone else here but come on... In the grand scope of things ICE is such a relic now and it will only become more apparent with time.

Save this post. Print it and stick it on your fridge and if in 5 years I'm more wrong than I am right, you can shame me. I won't be though.
I think the biggest thing you are overlooking [MENTION=396]Mike K[/MENTION], (and truth be told, maybe you aren't i haven't read this thread since I derailed it) is that the car & truck buyers of the US do not use logic when purchasing vehicles. they use emotions. they buy what they want, not what they need or should have.

I mean minivan's make the most sense for the majority of families out there, yet they are a tough sell :rofl:

the new hybrid pacifica is rated at 84mpge, yet i've yet to see any :rofl:

until something DRASTIC happens/changes, I don't think people will change their buying habits.

that's why pickup trucks sell in droves, or 4wd vehicles in general, not because most people need them, but because they want them.

3/4 ton long bed to drop the kids off at soccer?

FUCK YEAH

because maaaaaaaybe i'll go buy a camper some day, that's why I bought a truck.


denali's and escalade's are up 10% over last year :rofl: there is 0 logic to buy one of those, and GM could put pink dildos on the roof's of each vehicle, and they would still sell.


1602856950013.png





Shoot. Under two years to go

giphy.gif
 

Yaj Yak

Gladys
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probably relevant to this thread.


fucking sweet :bigthumb:



worth mentioning since tcg don't click:

As we previously stated, these miles are not all on the original motor and battery. In fact, by November 2019, Gemmingen had gone through three motors and four battery packs. Still, it's a solid achievement for any car and big news for an electric car
 

Yaj Yak

Gladys
TCG Premium
May 24, 2007
122,148
87,662
Niche score of 2,363
3 years after the thread started, beginning of 2020's.
Many major OEMs have ceased all development of gas engines.
Range, charge speed, charge locations, performance of electrics has improved drastically.
New electric vehicles and platforms have been announced by every manufacture.
Hydrogen is dead.
Prices have come down for electrics.
We've gone from 1% global sales to now at 3%
CA has banned gas vehicle sales starting 2035 (non issue, there won't be much by then)


It's almost like every prediction MIke and I made is spot on and in process. Who'd a thunk?


Many major OEMs have ceased all development of gas engines.

which ones? I hadn't heard of this.

Range, charge speed, charge locations, performance of electrics has improved drastically.

ICE stuff has gotten better range, mpgs and performance too :dunno:

New electric vehicles and platforms have been announced by every manufacture.

well, yeah.

Hydrogen is dead.

giphy.gif


Prices have come down for electrics.
okay

We've gone from 1% global sales to now at 3%

giphy.gif


CA has banned gas vehicle sales starting 2035 (non issue, there won't be much by then)




giphy.gif
 

zooomer

Member
Sep 30, 2008
96
9
Many major OEMs have ceased all development of gas engines.

which ones? I hadn't heard of this.

Range, charge speed, charge locations, performance of electrics has improved drastically.

ICE stuff has gotten better range, mpgs and performance too :dunno:

New electric vehicles and platforms have been announced by every manufacture.

well, yeah.

Hydrogen is dead.



Prices have come down for electrics.
okay

We've gone from 1% global sales to now at 3%



CA has banned gas vehicle sales starting 2035 (non issue, there won't be much by then)
https://electrek.co/2019/09/19/daim...combustion-engines-to-focus-on-electric-cars/ this news is a year old, stay up to date if you want to participate in the convo.

ICE has not made significant upgrades to power, range, and mpg. It's minimal like 2-3%. Electrics are 20%+ with more on horizon announced.

Nikola is a vaporware scam company that never had a real product. Keep yourself informed.

1% is half way there on an exponential curve. We went from 1 to 3% in 3 years. That's a 300% increase. Doubling every ~2yrs. We're not that many doublings away from full adoption.
 

Yaj Yak

Gladys
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An actual recent article:






Yes, Volkswagen. Matthias Rabe, VW’s technical chief, told the UK’s Autocar, that combustion engines “will have a longer future than some people predict.”

Rabe cited the current limitation of electric transport in aviation as the reason to pursue a “broad field” of fuels, including compressed natural gas and ethanol, for at least the next decade. Rabe said:

We take our CO2 targets very seriously and want to be a role model on CO2, but that doesn’t mean we will exclude the combustion engine.
Last month, the VW Group’s Porsche brand pushed the long-live-combustion narrative. Porsche CEO Oliver Blume, speaking remotely at a press conference in March, said:

We’ll continue with petrol engines in the 911 and improve them step by step. We keep on investing in combustion engines. It’s core to Porsche – especially the 911. We underlined the investment in future technology, but we have future investment in internal combustion also
 

zooomer

Member
Sep 30, 2008
96
9


Economy has improved by what 10% in 23 years from a 1997 GP?
Power has significantly improved. It'd say double in 20 years although electrics have doubled in power in 8.
Pricing has gone up or remained the same in petrol. GM has vehicles topping 100k now.
I bought my model S for 150k in 2016. A much better version of that car I bought in 2019 for 105k. Now it's 92 and range just improved again to 387.

If I said to you, would you rather have a million dollars or a penny that doubles every day for a month, what would you rather have?. All you do is draw a line on a piece of paper, trajectory. Start at bottom left and draw to top right, see how smooth it goes up? Now draw another line from center left to center right. This line is much higher than the one that starts at the bottom left but in some time the diagonal line crosses and gets higher than the straight horizontal line. There's no magic here. This isn't voodoo or rocket science. It's just a matter of looking at those two lines and realizing a rising line will be higher than a flat one on some time. It is seriously that simple.

I tried explaining this to several in bitcoin many years ago and people over complicate things to the point of missing out from not understanding.
 

Yaj Yak

Gladys
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May 24, 2007
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Niche score of 2,363

General Motors Co. and Honda Motor Co. are laying the groundwork for a deeper partnership in North America to jointly develop gasoline engines and crossover SUVs
 

Yaj Yak

Gladys
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Really? Like NO cars at all. wow, who would have known...roll eyes. People buy all kinds of vehicles. Fewer people are buying cars than they used to but plenty still do. Not even sure of your point here anyway??

When you post post things like this and others laugh I have a hard time responding because I don't know how to approach you. I have to chew through a lot of data and questions. -Do they know how to google -Are they lying or just dumb -why don't they ever research themselves before posting and looking stupid -If I post links to every point will the length of the post make them not read it -Which words do I need to provide a link to their meaning...
4-million-EVs-chart-3.jpg


Having posted I realized you may have been asking if I can show you how 1% is half way in an exponential curve. I would suggest you google the terms.

wait... this chart is cumulative... aka... including the years prior?



because...
Around 2.2 million passenger plug-in car sales globally in 2019 translates into an average of 2.5% market share (1 in 40 new cars).


would be close to the forecast then, on this extremely misleading graph
 

Yaj Yak

Gladys
TCG Premium
May 24, 2007
122,148
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Niche score of 2,363
What's stopping it? 20 - 30 years before ICE doesn't represent the majority of sales? I'd say it's closer to 5.

We're at the inflection point right now and the thing is it's all so obvious. You don't need to be a super-genius to see it. We all seem to agree that once we've reached parity it's lights out for ICE and that's the only point I'm making when I say ICE is dead. It's dead technology. You could improve it by a factor of ten and you'd never be able to eliminate it's shortcomings and there will be no breakthrough that suddenly makes it cheaper to manufacture. So since we all seem to agree that once we've reached parity ICE is dead, it seems all we disagree on is when that's going to happen and that's the easy part.

Assume no new interest in battery technology, which isn't realistic at all but let's assume that's the case. We can assume ICE drivetrains are not only not getting cheaper to manufacture but are getting modestly more expensive. So right off the bat you can see that ICE drivetrains have flatlined in terms of costs and are actually starting to increase in recent years whereas electric drivetrains continue to follow their trajectory downward with no signs of stopping. Not only will they get cheaper; they'll get a lot cheaper. You can do the same with charging, the same with charge speeds, the same with range, etc. Any metric naysayers cling to as the one that needs to be overcome before mass adoption is already relatively close to parity and is following a trajectory that will put it beyond parity very soon.

At that point who will buy ICE vehicles? Nobody but enthusiasts. The transition will happen faster than anyone thinks because very suddenly it won't make any sense to buy an internal combustion vehicle. But you won't even have that choice for long because once it does hit price parity, it won't make sense for these for-profit companies to make less efficient powertrains with thousands of parts that they have to warranty.

So again, the argument is when do we hit parity and I think very conservatively you're looking at just a few years. My guess is within 5 years electric is capturing at least 50% of the major automotive markets and almost all of the short haul new purchases (buses, UPS trucks, etc). It will trickle down as it is now with the last segments to switch over being the ultra-cheap economy cars. And to be clear, I'm not saying 50% of the cars on the road; I'm saying new sales. UPS probably isn't going to ditch a bunch of 2 - 3 year old trucks to buy new electric trucks but they'll buy them as older trucks come up for replacement.

To be clear though, 100% ICE is dead. Stick a fork in it. It's gone. Electrification is 100% the future. In my opinion the only thing you could debate there is the power source. Maybe there's some huge breakthrough there, maybe not. Maybe in 30 years we'll all be driving around electric cars with tiny fusion reactors for the power source but they will 100% be electric cars, not shitty old complicated internal combustion engines. I'm as much of an enthusiast as anyone else here but come on... In the grand scope of things ICE is such a relic now and it will only become more apparent with time.

Save this post. Print it and stick it on your fridge and if in 5 years I'm more wrong than I am right, you can shame me. I won't be though.


this is still my favorite post.


giphy.gif
 

sickmint79

I Drink Your Milkshake
Mar 2, 2008
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grayslake
i thought the arguments here were technological in nature primarily, aside from government subsidy for a winning technology it hardly seems 'fair' to cite withdrawing ICE out of a country due political restrictions.

it's not like europe is car friendly let alone ICE friendly. in a point about taxes and costs in denmark being high to some idiot american who like many, think their discretionary income here would be the same as over there, i was also pointing out that our same car - entry level sports car with a mighty 2.0 liter engine - had an msrp upon release in denmark of $88k.
 

Mr_Roboto

Doing the jobs nobody wants to
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Nashotah, Wisconsin (AKA not Illinois)
All of your math is very close. Even conservative in some aspects.
The problem you have is the same as I've been trying to show most people have. It's funny when people challenge me. Yeah, I'm arrogant. Anyone that knows me from clubGP days knows this. However you should also be tired of being wrong. My arrogance comes from debates just like this one. Here's a suggestion. When debating someone obviously of some level of intelligence, try and consider maybe the opponent understands the discussion on a deeper level than you do. Anyway...

1. Home electrical service. If this was an issue, obviously everyone with a EV would have issues now. Your point keeps highlighting over and over that people have a long ways to go to 'get it'. People have driven ICE for 100 years so everything in their mind, in your mind, is related to that experience. I already covered this, you didn't grasp it. Charging at home does not need to be fast. It happens overnight. Like a cell phone. If the situation was reversed and people were used to EV's you'd be making an argument about how inconvenient it is to go to a gas station. You'd mock the idea of not having a 'full charge' every morning. Proof of this is by asking any EV owner. A favorite part of owning and EV is not using gas stations. This entire thread is EV knowledge people trying to educate people like you that charging is not the issue you think it is.

Why would they have an issue now? I have a generator at my house that powers my fridge in a power outage. That generator can't power my whole block's refrigerators. There's a huge difference between powering my fridge and
everyone's.

2. The US generated 4.03TKW of electric last year or 5.5 times what you state we need. That was not our full capacity, however the component you're missing here is solar. Battery chemistry is now an information technology. Solar is as well. Our installed capacity of solar is doubling nearly every 2 years and by 2030 most of the current electric generation will be solar displacing coal, oil, nuclear, nat gas, etc. Over time this problem easily solves itself. Even if we banned ICE today, it would take 10-25 years for them to be off the roads and replaced by electrics. Plenty of time for electric infrastructure and generation. Trust me, minds smarter than you and I have thought this thru.

You act like that power isn't used for other stuff. Illinois is actually decomming nuke plants though (a lot of them) so we'll see. In certain places the grid is already straining. Cali had rolling black outs this summer for instance. Have you ever seen moore's law? The power of CPUs doubled roughly every 18 months. Batteries DO NOT do that. I already covered this in a previous post. Go read it. Batteries are bound by physics (even computers are, Moore's law is all but dead at this point due to the dies shrinking so small.)

Putting in perspective, you'd need about 3k sq miles of solar to power all of your cars. Or about 7% of the Mojave desert.

Good luck getting permits for that with endangered whatever below it on the desert floor. It's also an extremely destructive process to make 3K miles of solar cells and that doesn't count places where you don't have full sun all the time like that. It also doesn't count that you're generating power during the day that theoretically would be "like a cell phone" plugging cars in at night. It's not just about how much power you generate but when you generate it and the ability of the wires to carry it. Factories carry "peaking" charges because they use power during high use times. If you don't think that will come to the home owner in the era of smart meters you're absolutely nuts.


And while the numbers may make most people ignore it all and declare that's bullshit....California is already doing all this. EV adoption, power grid, solar, etc. 10% of vehicles sold there are EVs TODAY, and there are no issues.
March 8 of this year solar produced 50% of CA energy. They actually have too much power rn and have scaled back new solar installation. Unlike nuclear and coal plants, solar can be planned, constructed and put in service very quickly.

See rolling blackouts comment and desert permit comments above.
 

Mr_Roboto

Doing the jobs nobody wants to
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Nashotah, Wisconsin (AKA not Illinois)

2019 sales of electric vehicles in the US decreased 7% to 9% versus very strong sales growth in 2018, according to separate estimates from Edmunds and InsideEVs.



View attachment 69856

I could see that gas is cheap right now which means the tech will see limited interest. When gas goes up I'd think those sales would as well. I wouldn't be surprised if countries with less petroleum would have a higher uptake in EVs especially if they could get different forms of power with a higher density (nuclear for instance) or energy forms that are better converted into electricity than used in a portable format.
 
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