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12-05-2018 07:03 AM
Lead Pipe
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flyn View Post
I have been told by economists at work that there's usually around a 19 year cycle. The recession you mention was late 70s-early/mid 80s. More recently than that is the big one we had that started around 11 years ago through the early 2010s. That fits in with the cycle.

If you extrapolate, the next one should be sometime around the mid to end of the 2020s.

FYI, mortgage companies did just lower the credit score requirements for some loans. That's rarely a good sign. Sells more homes and mortgages to riskier customers.

I think we are not close to a major recession but could have market adjustments based on economics and politics.

Interest rates for 30 year home loans are still just under 5% so they're not bad yet.
That is exactly what I am saying. We should be at least a decade away from a substantial down turn. There will be market corrections along the way.
12-04-2018 10:59 PM
Flyn
Quote:
Originally Posted by sickmint79 View Post
what did these florida real estate economists say during the housing bubble? that it was time to buy a house in florida?

the late 70s/early 80s one was a bit of a voluntary recession as we entered that one on purpose. i don't really buy these 'cycle' theories, they just aren't that predictable and we are in very different territory now than the past.



recession or not i think there's a general forecast that real estate is slowing and in il will decline over the next year? you should save up money for it until you are ready to buy either way though yah? and follow the 28/36 rule and you should be all good regardless of what happens.



i think they are going to stop hiking rates now or soon. note that the fed will also use powers it only recently started playing with too, expanding its balance sheet to buy assets, should we start heading for recession.



i sure hope we avoid one as i'm working for a startup for the first time in my life and i'd really like it to sell for some dumb high numbers at some point!
Dr. Ted Jones is the lead economist who comes to our office each year. I wasn't there back in the mid 2000s but he seems to be pretty accurate in the 5 years I have been there. He predicted interest rates this year would end up around 5% with 6% max. Dead on with that.

Check out his stuff yourself if you like. He's on Twitter among other sites.

https://blog.stewart.com/stewart/author/tjones/



Higher priced homes near me have definitely slowed in sales. Lower priced homes are still cranking.



Good luck with your start up. If Trump stays in office 6 more years, you should have plenty of time to get it going.
12-04-2018 10:44 PM
kyesburrell
Quote:
Originally Posted by Intel View Post
Always a good time to be saving money. Just keep it out of the market in an online bank account, bonds, short term cd's etc so you can get to it when there is a correction.

Goal should always be
1. build up emergency funds (6 months is my preference)
2. pay down bad debt,
3. Save 20-30 percent a year between pension/401k, personal savings etc. This is where you build up that nice down payment nest egg.
Step 1: Done
Step 2: paid off student loans this year. Only debt is monthly credit card statement.
Step 3: I Have a good idea of how much I can contribute to Roth 401K as well as my Roth IRA. Could probably contribute a little more, since step 2 done.

I dont really want to own a house. Several coworkers own houses, and all I hear is how much home repairs cost. But at the same time, if I can buy when the market is bottomed out.....kinda foolish not to.
12-04-2018 10:28 PM
sickmint79
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flyn View Post
I have been told by economists at work that there's usually around a 19 year cycle. The recession you mention was late 70s-early/mid 80s. More recently than that is the big one we had that started around 11 years ago through the early 2010s. That fits in with the cycle.

If you extrapolate, the next one should be sometime around the mid to end of the 2020s.

FYI, mortgage companies did just lower the credit score requirements for some loans. That's rarely a good sign. Sells more homes and mortgages to riskier customers.

I think we are not close to a major recession but could have market adjustments based on economics and politics.

Interest rates for 30 year home loans are still just under 5% so they're not bad yet.
what did these florida real estate economists say during the housing bubble? that it was time to buy a house in florida?

the late 70s/early 80s one was a bit of a voluntary recession as we entered that one on purpose. i don't really buy these 'cycle' theories, they just aren't that predictable and we are in very different territory now than the past.

Quote:
Originally Posted by kyesburrell View Post
Question: So IF we are nearing a correction/recession, this would be a good time to save up money for a down payment on a house? As im currently renting an apartment. Or do I have this backwards?
recession or not i think there's a general forecast that real estate is slowing and in il will decline over the next year? you should save up money for it until you are ready to buy either way though yah? and follow the 28/36 rule and you should be all good regardless of what happens.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ron Vogel View Post
Oh it's happening. Fed is being pressured to throttle interest rate. Gas coming down. Nations getting together to stimulate global commerce.

Demand is low right now. that's all you need to look at. I passed some opportunities to move to other jobs the past few months...staying put until this blows over.

The current administration is favoring the super rich. Income inequality is high, and the rich don't spend to stimulate the economy. Hopefully I can ride this one out employed. Last one cost me my house and my savings.
i think they are going to stop hiking rates now or soon. note that the fed will also use powers it only recently started playing with too, expanding its balance sheet to buy assets, should we start heading for recession.



i sure hope we avoid one as i'm working for a startup for the first time in my life and i'd really like it to sell for some dumb high numbers at some point!
12-04-2018 10:11 PM
Intel
Quote:
Originally Posted by kyesburrell View Post
Question: So IF we are nearing a correction/recession, this would be a good time to save up money for a down payment on a house? As im currently renting an apartment. Or do I have this backwards?
Always a good time to be saving money. Just keep it out of the market in an online bank account, bonds, short term cd's etc so you can get to it when there is a correction.

Goal should always be
1. build up emergency funds (6 months is my preference)
2. pay down bad debt,
3. Save 20-30 percent a year between pension/401k, personal savings etc. This is where you build up that nice down payment nest egg.
12-04-2018 09:54 PM
Flyn
Quote:
Originally Posted by kyesburrell View Post
Question: So IF we are nearing a correction/recession, this would be a good time to save up money for a down payment on a house? As im currently renting an apartment. Or do I have this backwards?
There are a lot of factors in buying a home. Your immediate and future needs, how much you spend on rent now, prices of homes being bottom/middle/top of the current cycle, and other factors.

You can look at statistics for any counties you are interested in to see what prices and home sales are doing. If you can't find them, ask a local Realtor to look them up. Won't cost anything although they will want your information to, hopefully, have you use them when you are buying.

If you are really thinking about it, check with a mortgage broker or two or three to find out how much a home will cost you monthly and what kind of interest rate you will be looking at.
12-04-2018 09:48 PM
cacicgtp7
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryan02Stang View Post
I usually take Adam Jonas's predictions with a grain of salt...



Earlier this year he slashed his Tesla stock target from $376 to $291 (it was around $290 at the time of his slash). Today Tesla is at ~$360.


It was at 250 just a month ago...

In July was 290, August 380, September 260, and October 250.


I wouldn’t say it’s stable nor predictable and probably not an indicator of where the auto market actually is lol.
12-04-2018 09:27 PM
Ron Vogel
Quote:
Originally Posted by LikeABauce302 View Post
If Trump would refrain from calling himself a "Tariff Man", the stock market would be a little less volatile Good stock buying opportunity tomorrow after the market plunged today.

I think we are still a few years away from another recession. The economy is still healthy and unemployment is very low. We will see a slow down and correction for now.
I'd wait until February to see what the real jobs numbers are, I think the Fall/winter is the worst time to assess because of all the seasonal jobs.
12-04-2018 09:25 PM
Ron Vogel
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lead Pipe View Post
The last time there was a great recession it was in the 70's-80's. Reganomics and the internet boom carried inflation and a great economy from the mid 80's through the 90's and into the 2000's until the 9/11 attacks and housing bubble burst. We are not due for a recession for a while. At least I hope.
Reganomics did not help, the nation was strong but the economy was weak in that period. Unless you were a wall street trader you weren't making shit. Economy didn't start revving up until just before Bush Sr. was out of office. There were jobs to be had, but not the surplus yousaw until Clinton was in office. I was tripping over jobs back then.
12-04-2018 09:20 PM
LikeABauce302 If Trump would refrain from calling himself a "Tariff Man", the stock market would be a little less volatile Good stock buying opportunity tomorrow after the market plunged today.

I think we are still a few years away from another recession. The economy is still healthy and unemployment is very low. We will see a slow down and correction for now.
12-04-2018 08:54 PM
Ron Vogel
Quote:
Originally Posted by sickmint79 View Post
i think it pretty unlikely we're heading into a recession right now.
Oh it's happening. Fed is being pressured to throttle interest rate. Gas coming down. Nations getting together to stimulate global commerce.

Demand is low right now. that's all you need to look at. I passed some opportunities to move to other jobs the past few months...staying put until this blows over.

The current administration is favoring the super rich. Income inequality is high, and the rich don't spend to stimulate the economy. Hopefully I can ride this one out employed. Last one cost me my house and my savings.
12-04-2018 08:53 PM
kyesburrell Question: So IF we are nearing a correction/recession, this would be a good time to save up money for a down payment on a house? As im currently renting an apartment. Or do I have this backwards?
12-04-2018 08:06 PM
Flyn
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lead Pipe View Post
The last time there was a great recession it was in the 70's-80's. Reganomics and the internet boom carried inflation and a great economy from the mid 80's through the 90's and into the 2000's until the 9/11 attacks and housing bubble burst. We are not due for a recession for a while. At least I hope.
I have been told by economists at work that there's usually around a 19 year cycle. The recession you mention was late 70s-early/mid 80s. More recently than that is the big one we had that started around 11 years ago through the early 2010s. That fits in with the cycle.

If you extrapolate, the next one should be sometime around the mid to end of the 2020s.

FYI, mortgage companies did just lower the credit score requirements for some loans. That's rarely a good sign. Sells more homes and mortgages to riskier customers.

I think we are not close to a major recession but could have market adjustments based on economics and politics.

Interest rates for 30 year home loans are still just under 5% so they're not bad yet.
12-04-2018 07:48 PM
OffshoreDrilling Whatever is happening, it’s the millennials fault!!!


I think the dynamics of the economy are changing. More and more debt being held all around. Corporations, students, government. Who’s going to mass default first?
12-04-2018 07:45 PM
sickmint79
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lead Pipe View Post
The last time there was a great recession it was in the 70's-80's. Reganomics and the internet boom carried inflation and a great economy from the mid 80's through the 90's and into the 2000's until the 9/11 attacks and housing bubble burst. We are not due for a recession for a while. At least I hope.
timewise i would say we are due, but note they have been getting further and further apart. plus we have better tools and technology than ever to try and tweak things.

there doesn't really seem to be a big accumulation of mistakes to resolve, as there were with the housing bubble and dot com bubble. it seems right now that things are pretty dependent on the fed and how much it continues to hike rates, which seems likely to slow/be on pause at this point.

Quote:
Originally Posted by b00sted View Post
Student loans are the next bubble. That shit is completely out of control.
these are pretty nuts and seemed to get even more nuts after 2010. really college for many hardly seems worth it given all the skills and knowledge you can acquire now online, at least for a lot of things.

i woudn't expect that bubble to trigger any kind of economic crisis though. it really is a legit drag on 'millenials' carrying it though.
12-04-2018 07:27 PM
Stink Star Productions Is it actually the student loan that is the issue though? Or is it just the fact that the cost of college is completely out of control? I don’t understand why people expect to borrow the money for college and then bitch that they have to pay it back.... to me that part is on them, the same as buying a house or a car that you cannot afford. But the price that they charge for the school is the real crime. Quality of education seems to have gone down but prices have increased 5x what they used to be in even the 90s....its all bullshit.
12-04-2018 06:10 PM
b00sted Student loans are the next bubble. That shit is completely out of control.
12-04-2018 05:09 PM
N20GT Until car loans are packaged and leveraged 20:1 like mortgages were in 2007, there is no bubble IMO
12-04-2018 04:02 PM
Kensington
Quote:
Originally Posted by sickmint79 View Post
oops you are right. i copied that from something i was reading at the time although it is definitely weird and i can't make sense of it even if i swap the original number to weeks (which is not long enough) - so i'm not sure what is up with that original content. in any case, it's been a good long while timewise. but there just doesn't seem to be anything that jacked with the economy to cause us to slump into a recession at the moment.
There were some rumblings of a car loan bubble, but I don't know if that would really cause any sort of lasting issues. Hopefully just means a lot of repossessed cars and cheaper used cars
12-04-2018 03:58 PM
Lead Pipe
Quote:
Originally Posted by sickmint79 View Post
oops you are right. i copied that from something i was reading at the time although it is definitely weird and i can't make sense of it even if i swap the original number to weeks (which is not long enough) - so i'm not sure what is up with that original content. in any case, it's been a good long while timewise. but there just doesn't seem to be anything that jacked with the economy to cause us to slump into a recession at the moment.
The last time there was a great recession it was in the 70's-80's. Reganomics and the internet boom carried inflation and a great economy from the mid 80's through the 90's and into the 2000's until the 9/11 attacks and housing bubble burst. We are not due for a recession for a while. At least I hope.
12-04-2018 03:18 PM
sickmint79
Quote:
Originally Posted by N20GT View Post
That's over 20 years...methinks your months are wrong
oops you are right. i copied that from something i was reading at the time although it is definitely weird and i can't make sense of it even if i swap the original number to weeks (which is not long enough) - so i'm not sure what is up with that original content. in any case, it's been a good long while timewise. but there just doesn't seem to be anything that jacked with the economy to cause us to slump into a recession at the moment.
12-04-2018 02:36 PM
radioguy6
Quote:
Originally Posted by N20GT View Post
They're leaning up to prepare for a slowdown. They also know that they can't stay staffed at capacity that supports 17m units/year of sales in the US without going bankrupt in the next slowdown.


Do you want them to make fiscally responsible decisions, or do you want to bail them out. Pick one...the way you worded your comment makes it seem like they should keep employing everyone while also performing well in every business cycle. That's now how it works
I just like how they blame sedans for their failures. People just dont want to buy their sedans. Obviously fiscally responsible is the preferred method and I dont like to see history repeat itself after we already gave them 49 billion tax dollars to become fiscally responsible and save jobs. If the Americans don't want to produce sedans, they're basically handing off an entire market segment to the Japanese and Koreans. In which the foreign makers will undoubtedly continue reinvesting those increased sales into EVs and more trendy crossover SUVs...err I mean raised sedans.

edit: all i'm trying to say is I hope their restructuring plans are successful in the long term. I don't think its fair to the American tax payer if we had to bail them out again.
12-04-2018 01:56 PM
BeerOrGasoline The yield curve is also inverted.
12-04-2018 01:53 PM
N20GT
Quote:
Originally Posted by radioguy6 View Post
keep blaming sedans but they seem to be selling over at Hyundai, Toyota, Nissan, Honda. The American sedan is going the way of the minivan, Chrysler invented it and the Japanese and Koreans made it better.

But for fuck sake no bailout v2.0 this time. No fat suits rolling up to congress in their G650s. I'm sorry but its quite a slap in the tax payers face seeing all those "saved GM jobs" disappearing 10 years later.... and Chrysler being bought out by a foreign car company.
They're leaning up to prepare for a slowdown. They also know that they can't stay staffed at capacity that supports 17m units/year of sales in the US without going bankrupt in the next slowdown.


Do you want them to make fiscally responsible decisions, or do you want to bail them out. Pick one...the way you worded your comment makes it seem like they should keep employing everyone while also performing well in every business cycle. That's now how it works
12-04-2018 01:49 PM
Stink Star Productions Perhaps the domestic auto industry is struggling because they make sub par automobiles yet prices keep going up
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