5-10 DAY FORECAST:
An area of low pressure tracking across the US/Canadian border later Thursday into Friday will bring chances for some snows to northern MN, northern WI and most of the UP. The heaviest totals look to fall across north central MN, where 3-6” is likely. Amounts elsewhere look to be in the 1-4” range.
By later in the weekend and early next week, the models all indicate another low to develop in the southern Plains and track into the Midwest. This is the textbook winter storm scenario for areas to the NW of the lows track and the models do indicate the potential for some moderate to heavy snows to fall in portions of the NW Midwest.
While I would like to etch the actual occurrence of the low in stone, I cannot do that just yet, but am giving it about a 70% chance of happening, which is a pretty high number for something that is 7 days out in the forecast.
As far as the track of the low and exact placement of the heaviest snow, that is much more up for grabs. One idea is for it to occur from eastern IA into central and NE WI and the western 2/3rds of the UP. The other idea calls for the heaviest snow to fall from northeast NE into SE SD, the SE ½ of MN, the NW 1/3rd of WI and the western 1/3rd to ½ of the UP. Maximum totals with either scenario would put some double digit accumulations in the area of heaviest snow.
So on the map, I have a rather large area outlined within a dark blue line that could see accumulations of 8-12”+, but am not saying that ALL areas within that blue line would see such amounts. The areas shaded are where I think there is a good potential for at least 1-4” of snow.
Temps would remain mild to the east of the low, with readings falling to average on the west side of the low. All of the region would then cool to average in the wake of the low and perhaps be cold enough for some LES in the UP and NWL MI snow belts, although huge LES accumulations are not seen at this point.
-John
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