I'm Shorting Tesla

Mike K

TCG Elite Member
Apr 11, 2008
13,214
2,586
Well not really but today I cancelled my Model 3 reservation. They are strapped for cash, spending it at an alarming rate, just bought a company that is also strapped for cash (Solar City) and now the stock price is rapidly shedding value which puts the ability to raise capital into question as well as whether or not Solar City shareholders are going to approve that deal.

I'm 100% on board with the company. I think they make the best overall car you can buy right now but the stakes are obviously larger than they've ever been and I feel like some cracks are starting to show.

In a bankruptcy my deposit would basically be lost but if I take it now and apply it to my P85D, Tesla is still getting the money and I'm mitigating my risk.

I hope they pull it off. I love the idea of Tesla and would hate to see them sold off in parts.
 

SleeperLS

TCG Elite Member
TCG Premium
Oct 19, 2008
14,355
8,185
West of the Mississippi
If the model 3 doesn't make them a decent profit on a regular basis, how are they going to stay alive long term (serious question as I don't know the answer)? Eventually, the money that people feed into this company will dry up and they won't be able to stand on their own correct?

I think you made a smart choice, Mike. If they succeed, you can always pick up a Model 3 down the road.
 

Mike K

TCG Elite Member
Apr 11, 2008
13,214
2,586
If the model 3 doesn't make them a decent profit on a regular basis, how are they going to stay alive long term (serious question as I don't know the answer)? Eventually, the money that people feed into this company will dry up and they won't be able to stand on their own correct?

I think you made a smart choice, Mike. If they succeed, you can always pick up a Model 3 down the road.

They make money on their cars and they are innovative. I think if they slowed their roll they'd be a profitable company right now but something in Musk's personality says to leverage everything. Historically he's been a bad person to bet against but if he gets to a point where the banks aren't willing to give him any more money and the value of Tesla stock is such that he can't raise money that way, they're boned.

Sad to hear. I hope Musk finds a cash infusion to keep Tesla going. Don't want Tesla to be another Tucker.

Get used to Tesla as a brand. People love it. It wouldn't go anywhere. Someone would snatch the brand up in an instant and continue churning out cars.

where am i

Twilight Zone.

Shit I own Tesla stock and put a deposit on a model III. I'm uber-fucked

Well not really. Tesla stock was as low as the $140's earlier this year and is largely supported by a mixture of hope and delusion. I think the 3 will be released but they are going to trickle out. You might not want to bet against Musk long term but short term, he sucks at meeting deadlines.

How long does it take for the refund to happen?

A few days. Just goes back to the card. I paid for it with money that I made on Tesla stock the night of the Model 3 announcement.
 

VenomousDSG

Don't Tread On Me
TCG Premium
Apr 30, 2006
20,636
21,956
Yorkville, il
After a quick skim of their financials, they don't look to be in very good shape. Most of their cash is being put toward production of the new model 3. They are putting all their eggs in one basket, which is never a smart thing to do in business.

The way things are right now, not too many average Joes are shelling over $200+ a share on their stock, and the market for their high priced electric cars and batteries just aren't there. Not to mention the maintenance costs, and cost effectiveness for their products. They make cool innovative stuff, don't get me wrong. But the support just isn't there. Their products and stock are exclusive to the upper-middle class and rich, which is a small percentage of the population and shrinking more and more each day. They've had a good run over the past few years, but i don't think they will be around much longer personally.
 

jason05gt

TCG Elite Member
Jan 17, 2007
15,307
7,195
Naperville
They make money on their cars and they are innovative. I think if they slowed their roll they'd be a profitable company right now but something in Musk's personality says to leverage everything. Historically he's been a bad person to bet against but if he gets to a point where the banks aren't willing to give him any more money and the value of Tesla stock is such that he can't raise money that way, they're boned.

The cars really aren't innovative. I think what's innovative is the Supercharging network and Auto-Pilot.

All of the luxury manufacturers are gunning for Tesla, these manufacturers have capital and more importantly know how to manufacture in scale. For example, Audi just announced that they green lighted the "A9 E-Tron". If you look at the capacity of the NUMMI plant which Tesla produces vehicles, they are going to have trouble with scale as Toyota was only churning out 300K vehicles, which were economy cars (mainly Toyota Corollas). Maybe they can shift some capacity over to the "Gigafactory", but it takes a lot of time to setup a automotive production line.

The issue that I have with Tesla is that the stock price is built around hype and not solid data. I think months ago we debated shorting Tesla:bigthumb:
 

MikeyLikesIt

PHEV Enthusiast
Jun 11, 2009
2,866
727
Downers Grove
I believe Tesla is a disruptive innovation, much like Uber.

They created an electric car market that did not exist even a few years ago. While the other companies do have more capital and economies of scale, they are now playing catch up in a Market they could not conceive or understand.

Tesla infused design with technology and that is why they are the leaders. The new Chevy Bolt will mostly likely fail because GM did little with design.

I think the turning point will be the Giga-factory. If that is not operational in 2017 as stated, Tesla could start a downward spiral that would be difficult to recover from.

I do believe Solar City is a good idea, I just think the timing is bad. If they can bundle their home battery as part of the Solar City package, it will make sense with the Giga-factory.

I agree with Jason though, Elon knows how to use Hype to float the stock price.
 

jason05gt

TCG Elite Member
Jan 17, 2007
15,307
7,195
Naperville
Uber created technology, Tesla did not. The backbones of their first vehicles were pulled directly from Lotus. EV's go back to the beginnings of the the automobile.

I will agree that they built a better looking EV than previous renditions, but they still aren't as good looking as their gasoline competitors.

I think why Tesla has been successful from a sales perspective is based on three things:

1. Musk - He's a modern day PT Barnum and sells his brand well. He's also a smart guy. He's been able to raise capital and build a company on huge speculation.

2. $7,500 tax credit - Let's face it, it's the mid-upper and 1% that are buying Tesla's and they are always looking for tax credits or a way to help fight Uncle Sam come April. Plus in some States you get an additional credit.

3. Packaging: They've done a great job of packaging existing technology and incorporating it into an EV.
 

sickmint79

I Drink Your Milkshake
Mar 2, 2008
26,906
16,618
grayslake
The cars really aren't innovative. I think what's innovative is the Supercharging network and Auto-Pilot.

All of the luxury manufacturers are gunning for Tesla, these manufacturers have capital and more importantly know how to manufacture in scale. For example, Audi just announced that they green lighted the "A9 E-Tron". If you look at the capacity of the NUMMI plant which Tesla produces vehicles, they are going to have trouble with scale as Toyota was only churning out 300K vehicles, which were economy cars (mainly Toyota Corollas). Maybe they can shift some capacity over to the "Gigafactory", but it takes a lot of time to setup a automotive production line.

The issue that I have with Tesla is that the stock price is built around hype and not solid data. I think months ago we debated shorting Tesla:bigthumb:

tesla has been a short forever. the problem is the timing. ask me how i know :'(

I believe Tesla is a disruptive innovation, much like Uber.

They created an electric car market that did not exist even a few years ago. While the other companies do have more capital and economies of scale, they are now playing catch up in a Market they could not conceive or understand.

it's not disruptive though, it was just packaged well; i wouldn't consider that disruptive. uber, btw, has lost billions. tesla's success is in making a really good car, costs aside. others have tried to make a affordable green car. batteries essentially are a luxury drivetrain that one must then build a luxury car around. this technology is much more challenging to move downmarket.

their stock has always been insanely valued in that tesla is not valued as a car company but as a tech company. it does do interesting tech, but this doesn't change the fact that batteries are inherently chemistry and physics bound and this is where their challenges live.

Tesla infused design with technology and that is why they are the leaders. The new Chevy Bolt will mostly likely fail because GM did little with design.

I think the turning point will be the Giga-factory. If that is not operational in 2017 as stated, Tesla could start a downward spiral that would be difficult to recover from.

I do believe Solar City is a good idea, I just think the timing is bad. If they can bundle their home battery as part of the Solar City package, it will make sense with the Giga-factory.

I agree with Jason though, Elon knows how to use Hype to float the stock price.

don't they have a proven track record of delivering nothing on time? even hitting cheap battery goals it's unlikely to hit parity and there is still the charge problem. this problem is bought out of with more batteries and rationalized away by people. "well after x hours of driving i want a break for y minutes anyway." sure, but what about those less forseen usage patterns where you are essentially forced to take that break? what about when you have half the batteries of the luxo barge and you're also taking that break z times more often?

i think uber full EV actual auto driving cars would be the huge game changing solution. however the only thing actually read for that is uber.
 

Grabber

Oh Hai
Dec 11, 2007
4,363
860
Wheeling, IL
I want to like Tesla, but, I just can't. I think it is because the hype killed it for me. I see them everywhere now and the fact the the company goes balls out on each new model, it makes it seem as though they are trying too hard to make something.

For what you get, it is very over-priced in my honest opinion.

Stock is low now and would be great for someone that had money to invest to buy now, sell later after the 3 comes out and hopefully raises prices above what they paid significantly.
 

Gone_2022

TCG Elite Member
Sep 4, 2013
13,094
7,525
Everyone is quick to doubt them. Just the way everyone did when he came out with the roadster. Tried to get that off the ground, nearly bankrupting himself in the process.

Now look at the company. It's massive with multiple vehicles trying to get off the ground again on a mass scale due to demand.

I would never count this company or Elon out.
 

Gone_2022

TCG Elite Member
Sep 4, 2013
13,094
7,525
The chances they will are very slim. A lot less of a chance this time than before. Once the gigafactory is done it will be much better. Everything hinges on that factory right now. Every company has been here at this point, we are just used to all the other manufacturers having everything in place already around the globe
 

jason05gt

TCG Elite Member
Jan 17, 2007
15,307
7,195
Naperville
The chances they will are very slim. A lot less of a chance this time than before. Once the gigafactory is done it will be much better. Everything hinges on that factory right now. Every company has been here at this point, we are just used to all the other manufacturers having everything in place already around the globe



Doesn't the Gigafactory produce batteries though? My main concern is vehicle production capacity and if they can even turn out cars reliably en mass.
 

dberz94

Professional Slacker
Feb 14, 2015
1,225
367
Well did you actually short sell them? That would have been the move of the century. I stood at my computer at 10 in the morning debating to short sell and bah bam!... I didn't do anything. I just sat and watched secretly hoping for it to go down to 200 and it did. I should stop sitting on my hands and do more.

Down 200.77 -11.24 (-5.30%)

After Hours: 201.25 +0.48 (0.24%)

Range 200.50 - 211.10
52 week 141.05 - 271.57
Open 209.01
 

cacicgtp7

Some Military Dude
Nov 9, 2008
4,762
253
Boston, MA
Real Name
John
Last I read, Tesla doesn't even have the manufacturing capacity to fill the orders for the model 3 on time. Combine that with making a profit only in 1 quarter, I think, and they might not be around much longer.


Speaking of this I just read a great article. Said that with all things considered, and a bunch of math equations that are too smart for me to fully understand, there is literally not a chance in hell they meet their target. And that late 2018 or even 2019 is realistic; especially for late orders. I guess we will wait and see, but from everything I've read and evaluating past performance it's going to probably be quite delayed deliveries.
 
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