California proposes to ban the sale of new gas cars by 2040
- Thread starter Blood on Blood
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More government horseshit trying to dictate what people should do.
You really think in 22 years gas vehicles will be obsolete? That's precious.
I wouldn't put all your eggs in Tesla's basket if i were you....
You really think in 22 years gas vehicles will be obsolete? That's precious.
I wouldn't put all your eggs in Tesla's basket if i were you....
Good thing for those other automotive companies that they aren't solely producing electric vehicles. They diversify.
Ill guarantee you in 22 years all of those companies will be producing vehicles that are powered by fossil fuels. Unless by some unforeseen circumstance they are bought up by a competitive company that also produces fossil fuel vehicles.
Ill guarantee you in 22 years all of those companies will be producing vehicles that are powered by fossil fuels. Unless by some unforeseen circumstance they are bought up by a competitive company that also produces fossil fuel vehicles.
I disagree with California choosing winners and losers like this.
That said, it's estimated that there are 14.5 million cars in California with over 2 million a year sold. Lets take a battery from a small model S of 60KW, and assume 25% use a day. Just pulling numbers on that. You're talking 15KW per vehicle on average. That is 30,000 Megawatt hours. to put that into perspective looking at the Energy page of California, the entire infra built from 2001-2016 is ~22,000 megawatts.
I think that electric will take off, but I think the infrastructure could hold it back. I think the readily available fuels we have (including CNG) will keep it at bay for some time especially coupled with the progressively more fuel efficient powertrains and engines we are seeing now. I could easily see electric having a good market share in 2040, but totally choking out gas is not realistic IMO.
Another trend that's being ignored is the idea that people even need to own cars. Ford sees ride sharing like Uber as a huge threat. Car ownership can and will in all probability hit all time lows in the coming decades, especially as automated vehicles that are always on shift take over driving for humans.
The UK and France are the size of some US states. Being geographically constrained makes this a lot easier for them to swallow. Not only that but cars will still be brought in through the EU I suspect.
That said, it's estimated that there are 14.5 million cars in California with over 2 million a year sold. Lets take a battery from a small model S of 60KW, and assume 25% use a day. Just pulling numbers on that. You're talking 15KW per vehicle on average. That is 30,000 Megawatt hours. to put that into perspective looking at the Energy page of California, the entire infra built from 2001-2016 is ~22,000 megawatts.
I think that electric will take off, but I think the infrastructure could hold it back. I think the readily available fuels we have (including CNG) will keep it at bay for some time especially coupled with the progressively more fuel efficient powertrains and engines we are seeing now. I could easily see electric having a good market share in 2040, but totally choking out gas is not realistic IMO.
Another trend that's being ignored is the idea that people even need to own cars. Ford sees ride sharing like Uber as a huge threat. Car ownership can and will in all probability hit all time lows in the coming decades, especially as automated vehicles that are always on shift take over driving for humans.
The UK and France are the size of some US states. Being geographically constrained makes this a lot easier for them to swallow. Not only that but cars will still be brought in through the EU I suspect.
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I really don't think it will be a thing. I know it's hard to fathom right now but there's going to be a point very soon where the benefits of electric cars become so overwhelmingly obvious that the only people that will choose internal combustion are enthusiasts.
You look at cities like LA that have an inversion layer that literally traps in smog so that we're basting in our own ick and it makes sense to start eliminating this stuff but again, it won't matter. Between the efficiency, maintenance cost, better performance, complete elimination of localized emissions, etc it's just going to be such a no-brainer that nobody is going to choose otherwise. But I agree. We don't need the government picking winners and losers, at least not in this way.
As far as infrustructure goes, that's a one - two punch. On one side, you never have immediate adoption, so the infrastructure has a chance to catch up. On the other side, people don't realize how quickly solar is sneaking up. It's huge out here and it's getting cheap enough that pretty soon it's going to start making a compelling case for even mid-western states.
Cars are going to end up being appliances. I love to drive but do you know what else I love to do? Turn on Autopilot in traffic and surf the web. With so many accidents caused by distracted driving it's clear that most would rather sit in their car and do something else. And once you're in that position of autonomy you're going to find fewer and fewer people wanting to own their cars. The enthusiasts will be all that's left. I'm not sure that's happening any time soon. What I am sure of though is that you're absolutely right with car ownership. We're at the top of the bell curve right now and headed down.
At first I had a "Fuck you California" knee jerk reaction. However, by 2040, I don't really see the issue. For DD's I'm ok with it.
The biggest thing for me is that it needs to be as easy and as convenient as what I have now.
- Range. The charge range needs to be equivalent of a current ICE vehicle. I know Tesla's are, but until Model 3 production catches up, your real only option are the much more expensive Model S, Model X, or a penalty box Chevy Bolt to get the better range amongst vehicles currently out.
- Choices. As mentioned above, your options right now are limited. I want a comparable vehicle to any of my DD's that I have in my driveway right now. Meaning Suburban size, power, capability or mini-van size and capability.
- Infrastructure/ease of use. Meaning, I need to be able to recharge my battery, at any corner electric station, in the same amount of time it takes to fill my ICE powered vehicle's gas tank. Right now that is not the case. You have a few Supercharger locations throughout this area, but what if you're outside Chicago?? Even slimmer pickings. So you have to be sure to charge at home overnight or at work. Hopefully in the next 22 years, this facet makes substantial strides. If not, none of this will work. It needs to be as painless and simple as what we have now.
The biggest hurdle now isn't "Range Anxiety." It's "Replenishment Anxiety."
The biggest thing for me is that it needs to be as easy and as convenient as what I have now.
- Range. The charge range needs to be equivalent of a current ICE vehicle. I know Tesla's are, but until Model 3 production catches up, your real only option are the much more expensive Model S, Model X, or a penalty box Chevy Bolt to get the better range amongst vehicles currently out.
- Choices. As mentioned above, your options right now are limited. I want a comparable vehicle to any of my DD's that I have in my driveway right now. Meaning Suburban size, power, capability or mini-van size and capability.
- Infrastructure/ease of use. Meaning, I need to be able to recharge my battery, at any corner electric station, in the same amount of time it takes to fill my ICE powered vehicle's gas tank. Right now that is not the case. You have a few Supercharger locations throughout this area, but what if you're outside Chicago?? Even slimmer pickings. So you have to be sure to charge at home overnight or at work. Hopefully in the next 22 years, this facet makes substantial strides. If not, none of this will work. It needs to be as painless and simple as what we have now.
The biggest hurdle now isn't "Range Anxiety." It's "Replenishment Anxiety."
Are people in Oregon able to plug in their own cars to recharge them or is that going to be a big hassle in 20 years? 
I'm not a fan of them forcing people to buy electric cars, but at the same time I think this law could also force auto makers to get to work on electric vehicles even harder and thus make them better so they can still sell vehicles in California come 2040.
I'm not a fan of them forcing people to buy electric cars, but at the same time I think this law could also force auto makers to get to work on electric vehicles even harder and thus make them better so they can still sell vehicles in California come 2040.
I hear you but trust me, it isn't a thing. You think it is but when your car sleeps at the gas station every night and you're waking up with a full charge, it isn't a problem. But I won't blame you if you come back to me and insist that it is because before I owned the car I would have said the same thing.
If you guys want a fun anecdote (I know you don't but I'm going to tell you anyhow), I JUST yesterday had a 240v outlet installed at my house and only did it because I had an electrician over for other stuff. What's that mean in practical terms? Well, for the last 2 years of Tesla ownership I've been charging at a rate of 3.7 miles of range per hour at home off a 110v outlet. That means that for every hour my car was plugged in it would get 3.7 miles added back onto it's range.
And it still wasn't a problem unless we had just returned from a road trip and I had to head out the next morning some place far to meet with a client but that was such a rare occurrence as to not be a realistic problem. Now the car charges at a rate of 30 miles an hour and if you get the high power charger they charge at 60 miles an hour.
As the batteries continue to get larger and more efficient though, you're going to see the charge speeds increase as well. A larger capacity battery can charge at a faster speed and a more efficient battery doesn't necessarily charge at a faster speed but because it's more efficient it's getting proportionally more range than the less efficient setup.
Another anecdote... The 60kwh Model S's supercharge at a slower rate than the other cars. The reason is because their smaller battery can only charge at a certain speed safely. So when the 3 came out the concern was that it's smaller battery was going to result in the superchargers getting choked with cars. But now that the cars are trickling out what people are finding out is that because the 3 is smaller and lighter, it's much more efficient and so it's charging rate by a factor of how much mileage it can add over a period of time is actually the same, if not a little better than the higher capacity S's.
True with my commute (previously discusssd), but as MikeK stated, by 2040 the technology and infrastructure will have advanced, and I will not be at this company.
I hear you but trust me, it isn't a thing. You think it is but when your car sleeps at the gas station every night and you're waking up with a full charge, it isn't a problem. But I won't blame you if you come back to me and insist that it is because before I owned the car I would have said the same thing.
If you guys want a fun anecdote (I know you don't but I'm going to tell you anyhow), I JUST yesterday had a 240v outlet installed at my house and only did it because I had an electrician over for other stuff. What's that mean in practical terms? Well, for the last 2 years of Tesla ownership I've been charging at a rate of 3.7 miles of range per hour at home off a 110v outlet. That means that for every hour my car was plugged in it would get 3.7 miles added back onto it's range.
And it still wasn't a problem unless we had just returned from a road trip and I had to head out the next morning some place far to meet with a client but that was such a rare occurrence as to not be a realistic problem. Now the car charges at a rate of 30 miles an hour and if you get the high power charger they charge at 60 miles an hour.
As the batteries continue to get larger and more efficient though, you're going to see the charge speeds increase as well. A larger capacity battery can charge at a faster speed and a more efficient battery doesn't necessarily charge at a faster speed but because it's more efficient it's getting proportionally more range than the less efficient setup.
Another anecdote... The 60kwh Model S's supercharge at a slower rate than the other cars. The reason is because their smaller battery can only charge at a certain speed safely. So when the 3 came out the concern was that it's smaller battery was going to result in the superchargers getting choked with cars. But now that the cars are trickling out what people are finding out is that because the 3 is smaller and lighter, it's much more efficient and so it's charging rate by a factor of how much mileage it can add over a period of time is actually the same, if not a little better than the higher capacity S's.
I'm not disputing it, plugging my ears and going lalalalalalala, I'm just saying people are people and not everything works like clockwork.
Until it becomes a transparent point in life like dropping $5 of gas in at any gas station on any corner in the US because you forgot to put some in the night before, it won't pick up with the average consumer.
In 22 years, will that be solved?? Perhaps.
How long until you can charge them by parking over a pad in the garage and not need to plug them in?
I'm assuming someone is already trying this or looking into it....
The other hard one will be like apartment complexes, so they would need to wire their lots so there's a charging station in every spot for people renting there wouldn't they?
I'm assuming someone is already trying this or looking into it....
The other hard one will be like apartment complexes, so they would need to wire their lots so there's a charging station in every spot for people renting there wouldn't they?
You can do that right now but it's not very efficient and you need to get the car over a very specific spot. It's more hassle to park over a pad properly than it is to plug the car in.
In LA apartment complexes are legally obligated to provide power for residents with electric cars. They don't need to pay for it but they need to make sure it's available. Tesla also pays to install destination chargers at different locations, pays to have a generic level II charger installed as well AND pays the electricity.
I think once you pop into a city like LA and you see how ubiquitous it all is you quickly realize how seamless the transition is going to be.
That's L.A. though. A little different out there than here. Same in NYC. It's the "in" or "trendy" thing. Here in the Midwest, it isn't quite the same.
I will say though, We have quite a few electric charging stations here at work. The bulk are in the parking garages, but a couple outside ones too. And all are full every morning when I come in.
I will say though, We have quite a few electric charging stations here at work. The bulk are in the parking garages, but a couple outside ones too. And all are full every morning when I come in.
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