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Old 10-03-2017, 04:02 PM   #51
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That's really where I see an advantage right now. Living in a dense city there seems to be a distinct advantage to having all electric busses and short haul delivery vehicles. Especially with busses that are already huge and would see a negligible difference in weight with the addition of a battery, you're looking at having full torque immediately, much less maintenance and no emissions which is huge for an area like LA where we live in an induction layer and all our smog gets trapped here.

I don't see any disadvantage to basically any large vehicle going all electric. My brother's wife's father (does that become my father in law?) was telling me yesterday about all the places he can't take his motorhome. They'll take different routes around mountains because the V10 just dies at elevation and even then they're getting 9 miles to the gallon. If batteries were cheap enough you have basically the entire floor of the RV that could be used for that purpose. It would be more efficient, it would be easier to drive because of the instant torque and it would do wonders for handling as the center of gravity would be brought way down. The what if is how many batteries you'd need to achieve a respectable range and how much they would cost. But in terms of what would be better, I think in pretty much any application like that an electric drivetrain would be better than gas/ diesel.

I know I've been whistling this tune for 4 years now and everyone thinks I'm full of shit, even despite more and more companies/ countries stating they're bailing on the internal combustion engine, but internal combustion is in it's death throws. Electrification is the future and I'm not even sure Tesla will be the leader in that future. Speaking from personal experience I can say that if BMW came out with an electric 5 series that had auto steer I'd jump ship pretty quick and that's going to be reality in just a few years.
Ford to slash $14 billion in costs - Oct. 3, 2017

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Ford says it plans to cut $14 billion in costs and eliminate unprofitable model lines as it works to prepare for a quickly changing future.
Specifically, over the next five years Ford (F) will reduce its spending on materials by $10 billion, and engineering costs by $4 billion.
The company plans to focus more attention on electric cars and SUVs, and dial back the number of gasoline-powered vehicles it offers.
The plans were unveiled today at an investor presentation by CEO Jim Hackett, who's held the job since May.
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Old 10-03-2017, 04:28 PM   #52
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That's really where I see an advantage right now. Living in a dense city there seems to be a distinct advantage to having all electric busses and short haul delivery vehicles. Especially with busses that are already huge and would see a negligible difference in weight with the addition of a battery, you're looking at having full torque immediately, much less maintenance and no emissions which is huge for an area like LA where we live in an induction layer and all our smog gets trapped here.

I don't see any disadvantage to basically any large vehicle going all electric. My brother's wife's father (does that become my father in law?) was telling me yesterday about all the places he can't take his motorhome. They'll take different routes around mountains because the V10 just dies at elevation and even then they're getting 9 miles to the gallon. If batteries were cheap enough you have basically the entire floor of the RV that could be used for that purpose. It would be more efficient, it would be easier to drive because of the instant torque and it would do wonders for handling as the center of gravity would be brought way down. The what if is how many batteries you'd need to achieve a respectable range and how much they would cost. But in terms of what would be better, I think in pretty much any application like that an electric drivetrain would be better than gas/ diesel.

I know I've been whistling this tune for 4 years now and everyone thinks I'm full of shit, even despite more and more companies/ countries stating they're bailing on the internal combustion engine, but internal combustion is in it's death throws. Electrification is the future and I'm not even sure Tesla will be the leader in that future. Speaking from personal experience I can say that if BMW came out with an electric 5 series that had auto steer I'd jump ship pretty quick and that's going to be reality in just a few years.
an important factor you're not considering at all in the above is how quickly the car can be fueled/recharged, which is certainly an important part in any of these use cases.
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Old 10-03-2017, 05:24 PM   #53
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an important factor you're not considering at all in the above is how quickly the car can be fueled/recharged, which is certainly an important part in any of these use cases.
I don't mention it because it's a non-issue, specifically for the applications I've laid out.

Los Angeles is already buying all electric busses with a couple hundred miles of range. For a bus that's more than a day's worth of use. For a school bus you're looking at maybe 40 - 50 miles a day, much less in urban environments. For Ambulances you might have 10 - 15 miles of use at any given time before returning where it could be recharged at a rate quicker than they'd ever use. That's with no new tech. You literally need nothing beyond what we have now to accomplish this.

As for cars, BMW and others will likely sign on to use Tesla's tech (Tesla is part of the CCS standard), they'll make adapters or they'll create their own networks. You might see competing networks followed by a winning standard but that's the direction we're going. Right now Tesla has a jumpstart in terms of charging for road trips but Mercedes, Audi, BMW, Volvo, Ford, GM, etc have all made huge commitments to electric vehicles and they won't let their cars be tethered to a city. That's a problem that's going to be solved very quickly. View the charging issue as beta versus VHS: it's not up for dispute that we're moving from film to cassette; what's up for dispute is what format will become the standard that everyone uses. It's no longer up for dispute that we're moving to predominantly electric transportation; what's up for dispute is who will execute it best and who's standard will win out. It could be an auto manufacturer or who knows... maybe one day Shell or Citgo comes out and says they're creating a new universal quick charging standard. Time will tell.

But that doesn't mean it's not happening. It's definitely happening. There are few things I've ever been so right about as I have been about this and the almost daily barrage of stories about major car companies making huge investments in electric vehicles or announcing almost entire fleet shifts to electric proves that point. The door has been opened; it's not closing now.
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Old 10-03-2017, 05:58 PM   #54
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I don't mention it because it's a non-issue, specifically for the applications I've laid out.
count the number of karts at a k1 facility vs. a gas facility. observe what happens when the staff fuck up recharge cycles and a break is forced because nothing is ready. now let's get back to the cutthroat transportation and logistics industry. you're going to tell me the cost and time for refueling is a non-issue?

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As for cars, BMW and others will likely sign on to use Tesla's tech (Tesla is part of the CCS standard), they'll make adapters or they'll create their own networks. You might see competing networks followed by a winning standard but that's the direction we're going. Right now Tesla has a jumpstart in terms of charging for road trips but Mercedes, Audi, BMW, Volvo, Ford, GM, etc have all made huge commitments to electric vehicles and they won't let their cars be tethered to a city. That's a problem that's going to be solved very quickly. View the charging issue as beta versus VHS: it's not up for dispute that we're moving from film to cassette; what's up for dispute is what format will become the standard that everyone uses. It's no longer up for dispute that we're moving to predominantly electric transportation; what's up for dispute is who will execute it best and who's standard will win out. It could be an auto manufacturer or who knows... maybe one day Shell or Citgo comes out and says they're creating a new universal quick charging standard. Time will tell.
you're ignoring the time to charge, a problem you have somewhat expensively bought yourself out of, and focusing on the accessability of charge stations. ignored is the frequency of charge station visits and length of charge station visits. you are too quick to call full EV the winner and ICE as dead. it seems there is little in your comments above for something like ICE hybrid, yet it seems a much better competitor than full EV currently and likely for quite some time.

i think you're ignoring the history a bit of the way gas stations came about as well, which included oil producers opening stations to sell their refined product. not something you see electric producers doing today, so you're adding to the cost of the already expensive EVs the cost of additionally building out a charging infrastructure.

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But that doesn't mean it's not happening. It's definitely happening. There are few things I've ever been so right about as I have been about this and the almost daily barrage of stories about major car companies making huge investments in electric vehicles or announcing almost entire fleet shifts to electric proves that point. The door has been opened; it's not closing now.
they certainly have their place and their use case. i think it's 10-50%. you talk like it's 90-100%.
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Old 10-03-2017, 06:14 PM   #55
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They already have multiple technologies that allow drastically faster charging compared to current rates. It's just a matter of time until it starts appearing in real world applications.

That's the only negative (charge time) right now. Battery cost is another
but that has been dropping.

Electric will over take gas and it will happen faster then you think.
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Old 10-03-2017, 07:35 PM   #56
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This is exactly the setup I'm thinking. It would be a thicker cable no doubt but that green cable is way over engineered as it is, presumably because it sees a lot of flexing and is exposed to the elements.

I think you're overestimating the size of the cable. The high voltage cable in a Model S is smaller circumference than that. Even a supercharger cable, designed to see sustained high current, is maybe twice the thickness and that's only because it's liquid cooled.
That "Green cable" is called a 7-way, It carries 7 wires in it. 4/12 - 2/10 - 1/8 gauge.

They need to be careful of weight. A Truck and trailer can only gross 80.
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Old 10-03-2017, 08:24 PM   #57
 
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I'm a dummy when it comes to this battery stuff. How is the environmental impact when an EV catches fire or is involved in a bad accident? And I'm not talking crumple zones, I'm talking about when the batteries get crushed. Are there worse things leaking into the environment compared to an ICE?
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Old 10-03-2017, 10:51 PM   #58
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count the number of karts at a k1 facility vs. a gas facility. observe what happens when the staff fuck up recharge cycles and a break is forced because nothing is ready. now let's get back to the cutthroat transportation and logistics industry. you're going to tell me the cost and time for refueling is a non-issue?
Are you comparing companies with redundant vehicles and processes in place to ensure things like this don't happen to a go kart track?

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you're ignoring the time to charge, a problem you have somewhat expensively bought yourself out of, and focusing on the accessability of charge stations. ignored is the frequency of charge station visits and length of charge station visits. you are too quick to call full EV the winner and ICE as dead. it seems there is little in your comments above for something like ICE hybrid, yet it seems a much better competitor than full EV currently and likely for quite some time.
Charging isn't an issue. It isn't. You provide all these really specific scenarios in which one might have an issue but by and large there's no issue. I charge on 110 at a rate of 4 miles per hour. That means in a full 24 hour day I'm getting just under 100 miles of range added to my car but since my car is always plugged in it doesn't matter. It's still leaving the house with a full tank more often than not. And as charging infrastructure is built out in cities like LA, most of the place I go and spend time at also have charging that averages about 20 miles of range an hour. And most people that aren't idiots (me) have 240 outlets at their house so they can get the standard 30 mile per hour charge rate. Charging is not a problem.

Is it sometimes a pain in the butt to stop on a long road trip and charge for 30 minutes? Yeah, I'm not always a fan but two points:

1. The energy is free.

2. On the bell curve of charging speed we're at the beginning. It is going to get so much faster at an ever faster rate that while it might be a minor complaint on my car on very rare occasions, on a daily basis there's news of charging rate increases that cut the time down to a point where it's not even worth debating.

3. As batteries are getting both cheaper and more efficient this problem is taken care of on the other side as well as cars need to charger less and less. The Model 3's battery is both lower capacity and capable of further distance than the S/ X.

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i think you're ignoring the history a bit of the way gas stations came about as well, which included oil producers opening stations to sell their refined product. not something you see electric producers doing today, so you're adding to the cost of the already expensive EVs the cost of additionally building out a charging infrastructure.
Perhaps. I think refiners are seeing the writing on the wall. Shell actually is installing electric charging stations at their gas stations. They're seeing something you aren't.

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they certainly have their place and their use case. i think it's 10-50%. you talk like it's 90-100%.
I think it's probably 95%. I can think of few cases where it wouldn't apply. Fire trucks for instance. But come up with a valid counterpoint if you disagree. And please don't make the counterpoint you comparing professional logistics companies to a kart track.

Lastly, and I mean to throw you under the bus here but in a kind way, you've been really wrong on all this so far. Since my initial investment in Tesla in 2013 and my insistence that electrification was the future you've been the most vocal naysayer and your insistence that I'm probably wrong has been unwavering despite the fact that we're seeing an undeniable shift from the auto industry to electrification. Certainly you must be able to concede on some level that no matter how valid your concerns with electric vehicles have been, the industry is moving in that direction. My point being that those that make the decisions see things differently than you. The market sees things differently than you. The problems you present aren't as grand as you make them out to be.
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Old 10-03-2017, 11:08 PM   #59
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I'm a dummy when it comes to this battery stuff. How is the environmental impact when an EV catches fire or is involved in a bad accident? And I'm not talking crumple zones, I'm talking about when the batteries get crushed. Are there worse things leaking into the environment compared to an ICE?
Don't take my word for it but I believe the only negative is fire, hot hot fire. The batteries are split up into modules to prevent fire from spreading but an uncontrolled battery fire is no fun. I don't believe there's any kind of lasting environmental impact though.

To compare the two, consider that a Tesla with 300,000 miles, left untouched will still emit zero emissions and be nominally less efficient than when new whereas your standard internal combustion engine, assuming it makes it to that point, would be burning oil, leaking oil, likely have required the replacement of hoses and gaskets as well as hardware accessories, would have required replacement of timed consumables such as oil and that's all in addition to the fact that it's already emitting emissions because of fuel.

Once you get price parity there is no reason to have internal combustion engines. With sound being the one exception (if that's your thing), they are inferior in every conceivable way. And I'm not saying that I wouldn't miss engines. I totally would. But I think they would go down the same road as manual transmissions and station wagons. Everyone would tell you how great they are while a statistically insignificant percentage of shoppers would actually purchase them.
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Old 10-03-2017, 11:10 PM   #60
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Firetrucks might be an issue since the hoses, lights, and other items are also powered by the vehicle. If they have to respond to a 5 alarm and are there for hours, that charge goes down the drain. How are they getting those vehicles back to the firehouse?

Not trying to argue, just something to think about. Im sure there is a solution.
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Old 10-03-2017, 11:11 PM   #61
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Firetrucks might be an issue since the hoses, lights, and other items are also powered by the vehicle. If they have to respond to a 5 alarm and are there for hours, that charge goes down the drain. How are they getting those vehicles back to the firehouse?

Not trying to argue, just something to think about. Im sure there is a solution.
See my last post. That was my example for one of the few scenarios that I don't think they would be a good fit.
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Old 10-03-2017, 11:14 PM   #62
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See my last post. That was my example for one of the few scenarios that I don't think they would be a good fit.
DOH. I did legitimately read that one wrong. I thought you were saying it was part of the 95%
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Old 10-03-2017, 11:50 PM   #63
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Are you comparing companies with redundant vehicles and processes in place to ensure things like this don't happen to a go kart track?
the kart track does have redundant vehicles, because of charge time. i'm making the point that these companies would need them for the same reason, whereas you have shrugged off charge time as something meaningless.

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Charging isn't an issue. It isn't. You provide all these really specific scenarios in which one might have an issue but by and large there's no issue. I charge on 110 at a rate of 4 miles per hour. That means in a full 24 hour day I'm getting just under 100 miles of range added to my car but since my car is always plugged in it doesn't matter. It's still leaving the house with a full tank more often than not. And as charging infrastructure is built out in cities like LA, most of the place I go and spend time at also have charging that averages about 20 miles of range an hour. And most people that aren't idiots (me) have 240 outlets at their house so they can get the standard 30 mile per hour charge rate. Charging is not a problem.
it is a problem, just less of one if you can buy a large amount of batteries and are able to take the pain of charging at an opportune time for yourself.

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Is it sometimes a pain in the butt to stop on a long road trip and charge for 30 minutes? Yeah, I'm not always a fan but two points:

1. The energy is free.

2. On the bell curve of charging speed we're at the beginning. It is going to get so much faster at an ever faster rate that while it might be a minor complaint on my car on very rare occasions, on a daily basis there's news of charging rate increases that cut the time down to a point where it's not even worth debating.

3. As batteries are getting both cheaper and more efficient this problem is taken care of on the other side as well as cars need to charger less and less. The Model 3's battery is both lower capacity and capable of further distance than the S/ X.
dude that's 3 points. why do you think we're only at the beginning of a charging speed bell curve, it's not as if battery chemistry and charging has not been studied for some time. isn't much of that range of 3 vs s/x because the 3 is simply a fair amount lighter?

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Perhaps. I think refiners are seeing the writing on the wall. Shell actually is installing electric charging stations at their gas stations. They're seeing something you aren't.
where? just seems like some in europe and at prices not seen as competitive
https://electrek.co/2017/09/27/shell...-gas-stations

note (at least US) fuel stations also try to lure you in to potentially be a customer for high profit margin items in their store. this hardly seems analogous to the oil build out.

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I think it's probably 95%. I can think of few cases where it wouldn't apply. Fire trucks for instance. But come up with a valid counterpoint if you disagree. And please don't make the counterpoint you comparing professional logistics companies to a kart track.
the point was that your don't matter charge times requires fleet expansion of expensive vehicles to meet the same amount of availability.

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Lastly, and I mean to throw you under the bus here but in a kind way, you've been really wrong on all this so far. Since my initial investment in Tesla in 2013 and my insistence that electrification was the future you've been the most vocal naysayer and your insistence that I'm probably wrong has been unwavering despite the fact that we're seeing an undeniable shift from the auto industry to electrification. Certainly you must be able to concede on some level that no matter how valid your concerns with electric vehicles have been, the industry is moving in that direction. My point being that those that make the decisions see things differently than you. The market sees things differently than you. The problems you present aren't as grand as you make them out to be.
i've never said EVs have no place, and the 1% of sales today is perfectly fine with where i'd expect we'd be today. but if you look at japan this isn't true as they go big in on hydrogen, because what is really a major driving forces in both places? politics. it's not a market decision when the government picks a winner and throws money/subsidy at a technology. these big companies also like profits, and a significant amount of these cars took forever to turn any, and some may even not have to this day. cost and charge times are major factors around any EV buying decision.
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Old 10-04-2017, 12:59 AM   #64
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What if they make tesla van trailers with a solar roof... 8'x53' bit of sq footage there...
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Old 10-04-2017, 12:00 PM   #65
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What if they make tesla van trailers with a solar roof... 8'x53' bit of sq footage there...
Too small. Karma is doing that with the Revero (old Fisker Karma) and you get something like 3 miles of range PER DAY off the solar panel in a sunny environment and you'll have to have your $130,000 car sitting in the sun all day to achieve that. They're just not efficient enough to have any real practical use yet.
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Old 10-04-2017, 12:02 PM   #66
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So here's headlines not from this year, not from this month but just from today...

Ford to shift one-third of internal combustion engine investments to electric cars

Toshiba claims its new electric car battery enables 200 miles of range with a 6-minute charge

I've discussed certain technologies with a really successful business friend of mine and neither of us can wrap our heads around why there are still so many people refusing to believe that the industry is shifting and why they continue to deny it even as the changes get more and more obvious. We were saying these things a couple years ago before you had daily headlines about faster charging and manufacturers like Volvo announcing a major shift to electrification and a complete halt in diesel investment. Even companies like Porsche that insisted an electric car could never be made with their badge because they couldn't make it perform like a Porsche, is setting sites directly on Tesla with ultra high speed 350kw charging and a performance sedan to be released soon.

And in the face of these changes the naysayers are largely unwavering in their doubt, unwilling to concede that they might be wrong at all and in many cases doubling down on how unlikely the shift is, spouting the same tired old limitations in the technology that have largely been solved and are trickling down to cheaper cars at an ever increasing rate. This isn't aimed you Mike. It's an interesting look into how people have access to the same information and can walk away with completely different opinions.
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Old 10-04-2017, 12:20 PM   #67
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So one big point Mike K is using in his argument is that charging is free. Today that is partially true, you pay for charging at your home, some work places don't charge you and put up charging stations. Tesla's supercharging stations are free.

Do you really believe that if the market goes to 30+% EV vs. ICE that it will remain free? I don't think so, I do think that the current gas stations will add more electric stations but start charging at some point. Work places will most likely continue to provide charging stations at no charge (consider it a part of their comp or benefit package). If some of the other manufacturer's start putting in their own charging network I very seriously doubt it will be at no cost. It may be built into the price of the car, it may be a monthly service fee or like traditionally pay per use.

Tesla is only doing it to help get their product in the market place, The big 3 and foreign automakers aren't going to let their profits dwindle due to increased cost of supplying a consumable.

I do think Mike K is right on some things, I do think the EV vs ICE will be above the 50% market share in the next 10-15 years. In 30 it may be 90-95%. I don't see any Diesel loosing it's market share to EV.
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Old 10-04-2017, 12:45 PM   #68
 
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I kind of have to agree on that aspect. Charging may be free more frequently now, but I think that will slowly change, along with employers as well unless they installed some sort of solar. When itís a few employees itís one thing...... but if itís 500 employees thatís a significant cost.

500 employees x 12 kw per day x .12 cents a kw = 720 dollars a day in electricity for those cars.

Again random estimate but I charge 11-12 kw per day at my current job so just used my numbers.
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Old 10-04-2017, 12:51 PM   #69
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Please correct my ignorance on the subject.

Can an owner of an all electronic car truly drive across country without having to worry about charging station or length of charging time say at a hotel while sleeping?
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Old 10-04-2017, 12:55 PM   #70
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Please correct my ignorance on the subject.

Can an owner of an all electronic car truly drive across country without having to worry about charging station or length of charging time say at a hotel while sleeping?
Interactive Tesla Supercharger Map

Check that out, zoom out after clicking

and read this: https://www.tesla.com/supercharger
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Old 10-04-2017, 01:26 PM   #71
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Originally Posted by guspech750 View Post
Please correct my ignorance on the subject.

Can an owner of an all electronic car truly drive across country without having to worry about charging station or length of charging time say at a hotel while sleeping?

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Originally Posted by EmersonHart13 View Post
Interactive Tesla Supercharger Map

Check that out, zoom out after clicking

and read this: https://www.tesla.com/supercharger
Most EV cars have a range of 240-300 ish miles. If your really doing long trips you'll need to charge sometime through out the day. With the link Emerson provided if you have a Tesla you can supercharge the car in and around 30+ mins and get a good amount of range in that time. Figure stopping for lunch it's not too much of a hindrance.

I don't know about say a Volt or other fully EV car if it can accept Tesla's supercharging and if it can how quickly it can bring it to full charge.
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Old 10-04-2017, 01:30 PM   #72
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Volt isn't fully EV. so it can keep on driving on gas after it runs out. WIN
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Old 10-04-2017, 01:31 PM   #73
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Originally Posted by lastls1 View Post
I kind of have to agree on that aspect. Charging may be free more frequently now, but I think that will slowly change, along with employers as well unless they installed some sort of solar. When itís a few employees itís one thing...... but if itís 500 employees thatís a significant cost.

500 employees x 12 kw per day x .12 cents a kw = 720 dollars a day in electricity for those cars.

Again random estimate but I charge 11-12 kw per day at my current job so just used my numbers.
I guess that depends on the company, I have a client that is around 150 users and have 10 charging spots for their employees now. Knowing my client even if their workforce was fully EV they won't ever charge the employee's. They do this as a added benefit of working for them instead of the competitors.

Now there will be cheapass companies or should I say employers who think consumables such as fuel or electricity is the employee's responsibility and will charge for it. I agree with this mindset as it's been the standard for any employee/employer. However culture changes and what's acceptable today is not the same as what was acceptable yesterday. In 10-15 years who knows what would be considered acceptable.
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Old 10-04-2017, 01:32 PM   #74
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Originally Posted by EmersonHart13 View Post
Volt isn't fully EV. so it can keep on driving on gas after it runs out. WIN
My bad, thought the Volt was a full EV vehicle.
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Old 10-04-2017, 01:38 PM   #75
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EmersonHart13 View Post
Interactive Tesla Supercharger Map

Check that out, zoom out after clicking

and read this: https://www.tesla.com/supercharger


Quote:
Originally Posted by cap42 View Post
Most EV cars have a range of 240-300 ish miles. If your really doing long trips you'll need to charge sometime through out the day. With the link Emerson provided if you have a Tesla you can supercharge the car in and around 30+ mins and get a good amount of range in that time. Figure stopping for lunch it's not too much of a hindrance.



I don't know about say a Volt or other fully EV car if it can accept Tesla's supercharging and if it can how quickly it can bring it to full charge.


Well hot damn. That map was impressive. So the road to electrification is full steam ahead.




So are other manufacturers just going to build their electric cars to accept a Tesla charging station? Seems that would be the logical thing to do while also sharing in the cost of building more of these. It would seem really dumb to have charging stations only able to charge certain brand cars. Just like how every car accepts a standard gas nozzle.
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