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Old 02-17-2017, 06:39 AM   #1
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Default $1 Trillion Car-Loan Market Has Highest Delinquency Rate Since 2009

Car-Loan Delinquencies Hit Highest Level Since 2009 | Stock News & Stock Market Analysis - IBD

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Te rate of car-loan delinquencies in last year's fourth quarter rose to its highest level since Q4 2009, according to credit analysis firm TransUnion (TRU), amid ongoing concerns about the sturdiness of the massive auto-loan industry.

The auto delinquency rate or the rate of car buyers who were unable make loan payments on time rose 13.4% year over year to 1.44% in Q4, TransUnion's latest Industry Insights Report said. In the last three months of 2009, when the U.S. economy was still reeling from the recession and financial crisis, the delinquency rate was 1.59%.

The auto business over the past year has signaled that the auto market's long bull run where sales have been helped along by generous loans and incentives could be coming to an end, and the car-loan data are the latest indication.

General Motors (GM) still forecasts strong earnings this year but idled five plants in January and temporarily laid off some workers. Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) has also slowed production at some plants. Ford (F) said in October it would reduce production at plants that make the Escape compact SUV and F-150 pickup and recently said spending on electric and autonomous cars will weigh on 2017 profits.

Auto sales from General Motors, Ford and Fiat Chrysler fell in January, despite leaning substantially on incentives, or deals that car dealerships offer to customers or that automakers make to dealers.


Shares of General Motors fell 0.1% to 37.03 on the stock market today. Ford dipped 0.7% to 12.54, as it makes its way through a flat base with a 13.37 buy point. Fiat Chrysler edged up 0.2% to 11.54.

The auto-loan market surpassed $1 trillion last year, and Experian Automotive in May recommended that auto lenders "keep a close eye on delinquency trends."

And in November the New York Fed warned that subprime loans, or loans given to borrowers with lower credit quality, were a "significant concern." But it said that most car loans still remained solid.

Other areas of the loan market appeared to hold up in Q4, according to the TransUnion report.

The mortgage delinquency rate has fallen every quarter on a quarter-to-quarter basis since the third quarter of 2013, the report said. The credit-card delinquency rate was still well below what it was at the end of 2009.

However, the delinquency rate for personal loans crept up in Q4 to 3.83%, the highest for a Q4 in three years.
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Old 02-17-2017, 06:40 AM   #2
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Auto Bubble Burst Begins As Subprime Delinquencies Soar To 2009 Levels | Zero Hedge


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Meanwhile, looking at GM's subprime data going back to 2001 implies that historical spikes in 2-month delinquency rates is a fairly decent indicator that all is not well.
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Old 02-17-2017, 06:42 AM   #3
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https://austrian.economicblogs.org/w...ens-auto-loan
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Old 02-17-2017, 06:47 AM   #4
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sooo a lot of cheap, newer-used cars are about to hit the market? and it's time to become a repo man?

I don't know if it's me, but there seems to be a semi recent phenomena of everyone needing to own a brand new car. maybe over the last 5-6 years. It might be the age bracket of people in around. Financing themselves to death on a car that's as much as or close to their yearly salary. i don't get it.
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Old 02-17-2017, 06:50 AM   #5
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sooo a lot of cheap, newer-used cars are about to hit the market? and it's time to become a repo man?

I don't know if it's me, but there seems to be a semi recent phenomena of everyone needing to own a brand new car. maybe over the last 5-6 years. It might be the age bracket of people in around. Financing themselves to death on a car that's as much as or close to their yearly salary. i don't get it.
i think what it is too is people nowadays are "afraid" of cars too. they have become so complicated and pricey to work on/repair, EVERYONE wants a warranty it seems and is afraid to own a vehicle without one.

I think automakers have built this planned obsolescence into vehicles within the past 10 years to ensure new vehicle sales going forward.
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Old 02-17-2017, 06:52 AM   #6
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damn millennial generation. us assholes.

a 10yr old car doesn't even feel old to me in styling or features compared to what's new.
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Old 02-17-2017, 06:55 AM   #7
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damn millennial generation. us assholes.

a 10yr old car doesn't even feel old to me in styling or features compared to what's new.
right

my 16 year old bmw has more trinkets and doo-dads than i know what to do with.

power headrest. WHY NOT.

built in rechargeable flash light in the glovebox SURE


PUT MOTORS IN ALL THE THINGS.
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Old 02-17-2017, 07:15 AM   #8
 
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I think automakers have built this planned obsolescence into vehicles within the past 10 years to ensure new vehicle sales going forward.
shit, beyond that... GM trucks since 1994 have shitty aluminum crimps on stainless transmission oil cooler lines where they switch to rubber. they all leak eventually. if you dont fix it, boom goes the trans. my lower line just started leaking yesterday.

you literally can not just buy these at an auto parts stores for god knows what reason the dealers are the only ones to stock this part. other than online.. so I Primed it do my door for Saturday delivery. at least it will be nice this weekend.
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Old 02-17-2017, 07:17 AM   #9
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shit, beyond that... GM trucks since 1994 have shitty aluminum crimps on stainless transmission oil cooler lines where they switch to rubber. they all leak eventually. if you dont fix it, boom goes the trans. my lower line just started leaking yesterday.

you literally can not just buy these at an auto parts stores for god knows what reason the dealers are the only ones to stock this part. other than online.. so I Primed it do my door for Saturday delivery. at least it will be nice this weekend.
i mean something like that though, it's at least possible to rig back together.

and since that truck has a trans that was used in everything forever, if the trans goes, it is repairable.

think about all these new infotainment systems/climate controls/suspension parts with parts that will be unavailable in 7-10 years from oem or aftermarket suppliers, making the vehicles basically paperweights.
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Old 02-17-2017, 07:20 AM   #10
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interesting to see the rates, which are pretty small actually eh?

i don't think this, at least alone, is any kind of impending recession indicator. my fave econo guy is not sounding the alarm and he has a pretty good track record. interesting story though.
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Old 02-17-2017, 07:23 AM   #11
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interesting to see the rates, which are pretty small actually eh?

i don't think this, at least alone, is any kind of impending recession indicator. my fave econo guy is not sounding the alarm and he has a pretty good track record. interesting story though.
i was hoping you'd post in here.

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Old 02-17-2017, 07:37 AM   #12
 
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I think alot of people now are stupid when buying cars, I know people that trade every 2 years they pay sticker get raped on the trade and end up upside down on the deal, making minimum payments 2 years later same story, eventually they owe double the value of the new car and realize they cant make the 1000 dollar a month payment on a base car that should be a couple hundo a month
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Old 02-17-2017, 07:40 AM   #13
 
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i was hoping you'd post in here.

You added graphs and charts, you knew he would.

Like Jared said, sounds like job security for a repo man!
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Old 02-17-2017, 07:45 AM   #14
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I think alot of people now are stupid when buying cars, I know people that trade every 2 years they pay sticker get raped on the trade and end up upside down on the deal, making minimum payments 2 years later same story, eventually they owe double the value of the new car and realize they cant make the 1000 dollar a month payment on a base car that should be a couple hundo a month
seems like people are perpetually this stupid and acting as monthly payment consumers. good high school class: here's how much car your income affords, kids
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Old 02-17-2017, 08:15 AM   #15
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seriously, as one of lifes two largest expenses/costs.....why aren't we forcing more auto care/repair on these damn kids....and more home/household repair.....

computer design/engineering has allowed the OEMS to go from overbuilt cars with a few weak links, to cars where everything is 80% worn out at 100k and requires huge investments in component replacement beyond that.

granted vehicle reliability is up but so is the gismo count of parts that wont be available except in a salvage yard....and the only people interested in that solution for a 4-8 year old 100k+ mile car.... are the mechanics/mechanically inclined.

it sure as fuck doesn't look like schools are going to be able to afford to teach the more involved/applicable to life trades.....
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Old 02-17-2017, 08:16 AM   #16
 
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I think the younger generation (and I feel old saying that...I'm only 34), is quick to take on gigantic payments on things and over extend.

I have friends that have $700 a month car payments and don't think thats a big deal, and they should...they aren't making big money. We've been trained to just accept it. "Oh...college costs a fortune, just take out a giant loan" "Oh...the car I want is $50k, just take out a giant loan" etc. etc.
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Old 02-17-2017, 08:17 AM   #17
 
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it sure as fuck doesn't look like schools are going to be able to afford to teach the more involved/applicable to life trades.....
They're too busy teaching how to disect a frog and the Pythagorean theorem.
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Old 02-17-2017, 08:28 AM   #18
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people don't know the value of a dollar. most of us are old enough to have used cash for everything until we were adults. "kids" grew up with cell phones and plastic. type in a pin number or swipe a card and you've got whatever you want without any physical transaction of trading one object for another.
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Old 02-17-2017, 08:34 AM   #19
 
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Its true...I remember growing up and my parents didn't even have a credit card. They wrote checks for absolutely everything.

Don't even know if places take checks anymore...lol!
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Old 02-17-2017, 08:35 AM   #20
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many places still take checks.
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Old 02-17-2017, 08:39 AM   #21
 
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Ha...had no idea!
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Old 02-17-2017, 08:43 AM   #22
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Cash and checks are still king. Plastic and swiping is just convenient.

3% discount "for cash" because they don't have to eat the 3% credit card use fee.
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Old 02-17-2017, 08:55 AM   #23
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They're too busy teaching how to disect a frog and the Pythagorean theorem.
this stuff is still important as i think there is a basic level of knowledge everyone needs to have to understand life, but the day to day skills needed to successfully navigate society are totally ignored. money, ethics, critical decision making
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Old 02-17-2017, 08:56 AM   #24
 
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I think automakers have built this planned obsolescence into vehicles within the past 10 years to ensure new vehicle sales going forward.
I feel just the opposite and that cars are more reliable than ever. All of my cars with high mileage have been dead reliable. Even my Rustang has been dead reliable. My father in law owned a NAPA and saw it in his parts business too.
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Old 02-17-2017, 08:56 AM   #25
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i could literally say the sky is blue and you would find a way to disagree with me.
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