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Old 01-03-2017, 07:17 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by jason05gt View Post
The $7,500 Federal tax credit is certainly helping certain MFG's and then there are State incentives, so if those fall off then I can see it hurting electric cars.
To an extent but long term, no not really. A couple things to keep in mind here:

1. Tesla gets less for their ZEV credits than companies like Ford and GM. The reason for this is because the market for them is only so big but all Tesla produces is electric cars. Because of this, they actually don't get to realize the full credit whereas companies like Ford and GM come out with bullshit compliance vehicles like the Bolt and they realize the full credit. So since Tesla can't realize the full value of the credit, it's actually companies like Ford and GM that are being subsidized.

2. The Model 3, for example, will have a starting price of $35,000 before the tax credits. At $35,000 it will be on par with the cheapest BMW and Audi yet is almost certainly to be better equipped, not to mention you won't spend anything in gas. Depending on how much driving you're doing, gas is a big expense, even when it's cheap, and you can put all the money saved towards your car payment. I was paying $600 a month for my 535i and another $400 in gas. So $1000 all in. For my last Tesla I was paying $670ish a month and nothing in gas. If I was paying electric it would have added about $45 to my monthly bill. So basically nothing. So suddenly people that were looking at $25,000 cars are now looking at a $35,000 Tesla and the math still makes sense.

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The company that develops a wireless and quick charging solution will win the electric race. Gasoline is convenient in that I pull into a gas station and within 5 minutes I have a full tank. That equivalent needs to occur with electric cars where you can charge quickly and easily.
Tesla is already so far ahead here that it's basically a done deal. Elon has leaked info on a V3 supercharger that will be well over 350kW. That would effectively give you an 80% charge in 5 minutes. That's about on par with a gas car.

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Lastly, there are quite a few cool ICE technologies in the works such as camless engines and variable compression that will extend the life of gas engines.
They won't, at least I don't think they will. The internal combustion engine is a relic. New technologies are cool but almost all of them add even more complexity to an already complex system. An engine has thousands of parts, hundreds of which move and then an equally (if not more) complex transmission attached to it. That entire drivetrain is going the way of Old Yeller.

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Hybrids, electrics, Tesla specifically, etc will all be starting to fade away very shortly. A major part of that nutswinging government administration backed industry will be exiting in 17 days, and that ill be the beginning of the end for this current fad.

On a side note, I'd like to punch Leonardo Dicaprio in the face and have a snack too.
I'd like to respond to this but that would be pointless just by virtue of the comments you've made. I can tell you that whatever you think you know, I assure you, you don't. Check out how heavily subsidized the oil industry is. That's a solid start.

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Most I've read over the years supports this

I haven't seen many reliable sources over the years claim this has a significant impact on the auto industry before ~2050, with legitimate details backing its claim.
From my understanding, there haven't been many attempts at advances because there was no need given the price of oil. Me and a friend that owns a sizable company and does a lot of odd investing were talking about this and he clued me in on some respects. People didn't (and some still don't) see this coming because they falsely assume that they've been trying all this time and the technology has already reached critical mass. When in reality, they've only been tackling this on a macro level for a very short amount of time. The reality is that solar prices are dropping fast, faster than anyone thought. And improvements in battery energy density and cost are improving at a rate that was considered unthinkable just 10 years ago.

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I read the governments report back in Sept (provided below), and even that report (based on current CAFE standards, which will possibly get destroyed by Trump) say that by 2040 full gas powered vehicles will still represent the largest share of new vehicles sales, with full electric vehicles representing less than 10% of new vehicles sales.
Yeah, but I mean... it's the government. How much stock do you put in that? I don't put much. Maybe I look at things differently because everything I do is about investing or making money. The improvement in efficiency, power and reliability in an electric drivetrain over a traditional internal combustion drivetrain is pretty indisputable. People see that writing on the wall and anyone that wants the most powerful drivetrain and the smoothest acceleration is going to want electric. And they want it now actually. The thing holding them back now is pricing which is coming down and charging times which are also coming down.

I could be wrong but so far everything I've said, many of which others here told me I was crazy about, is happening. When the tides start to change after decades of stagnation and I was expecting that change, well I guess there's a little bit of confirmation bias there.
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Old 01-03-2017, 07:42 PM   #27
 
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I have watched the electric car nutswingers for decades.

No one has ever given me a satisfactory answer to the question of undersized electric grid infrastructure.

If half the homes in my neighborhood plugged in a current greedy Tesla or Volt right now, it would smoke the grid.

Oh yeah - our brilliant politicians will just 'ask' us for an 'investment' when that overlooked little nugget rises up.
I dont think you understand power converters transformers and everything else needed for these hybrids. i believe tesla uses about 400 volts and porsche is looking to start using 800v systems.

Obviously this isnt some 120v 60hz residential grid power being used

hybrids also need to have grid power inverted from ac to dc too.
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Old 01-03-2017, 08:26 PM   #28
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I dont think you understand power converters transformers and everything else needed for these hybrids. i believe tesla uses about 400 volts and porsche is looking to start using 800v systems.

Obviously this isnt some 120v 60hz residential grid power being used

hybrids also need to have grid power inverted from ac to dc too.
The inversion from AC to DC on a plug in vehicle like a volt takes place in the car.
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Old 01-03-2017, 08:32 PM   #29
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I have watched the electric car nutswingers for decades.

No one has ever given me a satisfactory answer to the question of undersized electric grid infrastructure.

If half the homes in my neighborhood plugged in a current greedy Tesla or Volt right now, it would smoke the grid.

Oh yeah - our brilliant politicians will just 'ask' us for an 'investment' when that overlooked little nugget rises up.
These changes don't happen over night and the infrastructure adapts with demand. This is so basic I can't believe you need it explained to you. Everyone said the same with the internet and streaming video and things happened (and continue to happen) so gradually that the infrastructure had plenty of time to catch up and continues to do so.

Now what was considered to be a really big issue 10 years ago is taken for granted as we all binge watch House of Cards.
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Old 01-03-2017, 08:43 PM   #30
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I dont think you understand power converters transformers and everything else needed for these hybrids. i believe tesla uses about 400 volts and porsche is looking to start using 800v systems.

Obviously this isnt some 120v 60hz residential grid power being used

hybrids also need to have grid power inverted from ac to dc too.
LOL

You funny.

I fly all over the world fixing high inrush electrical equipment with outputs that resemble a flux-capacitor. Not quite Tesla Coil bolts, but close, and deadlier.

That said. THE WIRES ARE NOT THERE. Who do you think is going to pay for those wires? I KNOW THEY ARE NOT THERE OR I WOULDN'T HAVE BROUGHT IT UP ! Go ahead, half of future California, plug in your fucking cars and watch the rolling blackouts. Then watch your 'smart' thermostat shut off your house AC so all the electric cars can have their power after 5pm when all the owners get home.

Yes. I know more of what I said than you do, Sir.
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Old 01-03-2017, 08:46 PM   #31
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Well, that seals it for me. I just sent Elon an emailing telling him not to bother.
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Old 01-03-2017, 08:58 PM   #32
 
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Well, that seals it for me. I just sent Elon an emailing telling him not to bother.


I figured you were texting buddies with Elon.
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Old 01-03-2017, 09:18 PM   #33
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Well, that seals it for me. I just sent Elon an emailing telling him not to bother.
He's gonna have to do it with less handouts from Uncle Sam. Gonna be nice to see this cuntry finally run like a business.

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Old 01-03-2017, 09:31 PM   #34
 
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From my understanding, there haven't been many attempts at advances because there was no need given the price of oil. Me and a friend that owns a sizable company and does a lot of odd investing were talking about this and he clued me in on some respects. People didn't (and some still don't) see this coming because they falsely assume that they've been trying all this time and the technology has already reached critical mass. When in reality, they've only been tackling this on a macro level for a very short amount of time. The reality is that solar prices are dropping fast, faster than anyone thought. And improvements in battery energy density and cost are improving at a rate that was considered unthinkable just 10 years ago.



Yeah, but I mean... it's the government. How much stock do you put in that? I don't put much. Maybe I look at things differently because everything I do is about investing or making money. The improvement in efficiency, power and reliability in an electric drivetrain over a traditional internal combustion drivetrain is pretty indisputable. People see that writing on the wall and anyone that wants the most powerful drivetrain and the smoothest acceleration is going to want electric. And they want it now actually. The thing holding them back now is pricing which is coming down and charging times which are also coming down.

I could be wrong but so far everything I've said, many of which others here told me I was crazy about, is happening. When the tides start to change after decades of stagnation and I was expecting that change, well I guess there's a little bit of confirmation bias there.
So is there any sources out there for this, or is it just you and your buddy? Legitimately curious.
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Old 01-03-2017, 11:47 PM   #35
 
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LOL

You funny.

I fly all over the world fixing high inrush electrical equipment with outputs that resemble a flux-capacitor. Not quite Tesla Coil bolts, but close, and deadlier.

That said. THE WIRES ARE NOT THERE. Who do you think is going to pay for those wires? I KNOW THEY ARE NOT THERE OR I WOULDN'T HAVE BROUGHT IT UP ! Go ahead, half of future California, plug in your fucking cars and watch the rolling blackouts. Then watch your 'smart' thermostat shut off your house AC so all the electric cars can have their power after 5pm when all the owners get home.

Yes. I know more of what I said than you do, Sir.
Funny I fly all over working on military radar.... You know how much voltage is in a little sentinel radar for example? Hint its more than 400v just incase you cant put the 2 together thats more than the Tesla uses...... If youre so smart with electronics then your own questions sould have been answered on your own.

If not I suggest you research a little bit on the 800v system Porsche plans on using. I can assure you shitting out 800v is no easy feat nor will it black out a city block or make a transformer explode or whatever dooms day scenerio you think will happen.....

Yes. You are more ignorant than you want to admit. And understand less than your willing to admit. Im no EE but hell this isnt rocket math if youd stop and do some reading.....

Research if you dont know the answers instead of freaking out like the grid is going to explode and you look like a fool.
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Old 01-03-2017, 11:57 PM   #36
 
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Ill start you off myself with a swift kick in the ol google box....

https://cleantechnica.com/2016/05/11...rs-break-grid

last paragraph....

"Electric cars aren’t going to break the grid. Anyone who says so isn’t doing the math."

WOW its like that article was talking directly to YOU!

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Old 01-04-2017, 01:07 AM   #37
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Faraday Future just "passed" Tesla. 2.39 to 60.
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Old 01-04-2017, 06:21 AM   #38
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Next they have to actually have a car that people can actually buy and make it for less than a tesla. Not gonna happen
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Old 01-04-2017, 07:46 AM   #39
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I'm actually kind of happy about all of the electric smug pollution. All of their clouds of smug will obscure my clouds of carbon.

That and when Skynet takes over I won't have to be killed with just reprogramming my car... them damn machines are going to have to come kill me in my carbureted 1968 Ford and I'm going to be able to drive over them without airbags blowing up...nor listen to the audio system tell me that "resistance is futile"
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3800>all other technology ever
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Old 01-04-2017, 09:02 AM   #40
 
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good time to invest in lithium and rare earth elements.
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Old 01-04-2017, 12:20 PM   #41
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So is there any sources out there for this, or is it just you and your buddy? Legitimately curious.
There is. Him and I aren't really just speculating based on opinion. We're drawing conclusions based on observable evidence. Him and I both make money doing things that appear obvious to us but not many other people. So I wonder how much of it is just that we think alike and we look at things differently than most people do. Which is not to say that we're smarter or better, just different.

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Next they have to actually have a car that people can actually buy and make it for less than a tesla. Not gonna happen
Seriously. First they come out and spend the first 40 minutes talking about nonsense like how many modems the car has, then they brag about it beating the Tesla P100D by 1/100th of a second and then they never mention a price. Their suppliers are suing them, they've halted construction at their Nevada factory and they're basically peddling vaporware right now. Not only that but the P100D is getting a firmware update in a few weeks that will lower it's 0-60 to 2.4 seconds and also at the speed Tesla is improving the cars, they'll have a 0-60 time of warp speed and a fully autonomous flying car by the time Faraday releases anything.

I am all for these new startups and I think it's great that Tesla gets some competition but this company is all marketing so far.
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Old 01-04-2017, 12:27 PM   #42
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Seriously. First they come out and spend the first 40 minutes talking about nonsense like how many modems the car has, then they brag about it beating the Tesla P100D by 1/100th of a second and then they never mention a price. Their suppliers are suing them, they've halted construction at their Nevada factory and they're basically peddling vaporware right now. Not only that but the P100D is getting a firmware update in a few weeks that will lower it's 0-60 to 2.4 seconds and also at the speed Tesla is improving the cars, they'll have a 0-60 time of warp speed and a fully autonomous flying car by the time Faraday releases anything.

I am all for these new startups and I think it's great that Tesla gets some competition but this company is all marketing so far.
They are also losing execs left and right. Usually a sign of no confidence in the product.

Faraday Future: Two top executives leave before CES 2017 car reveal - Business Insider
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Old 01-04-2017, 03:04 PM   #43
 
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To an extent but long term, no not really. A couple things to keep in mind here:

1. Tesla gets less for their ZEV credits than companies like Ford and GM. The reason for this is because the market for them is only so big but all Tesla produces is electric cars. Because of this, they actually don't get to realize the full credit whereas companies like Ford and GM come out with bullshit compliance vehicles like the Bolt and they realize the full credit. So since Tesla can't realize the full value of the credit, it's actually companies like Ford and GM that are being subsidized.

2. The Model 3, for example, will have a starting price of $35,000 before the tax credits. At $35,000 it will be on par with the cheapest BMW and Audi yet is almost certainly to be better equipped, not to mention you won't spend anything in gas. Depending on how much driving you're doing, gas is a big expense, even when it's cheap, and you can put all the money saved towards your car payment. I was paying $600 a month for my 535i and another $400 in gas. So $1000 all in. For my last Tesla I was paying $670ish a month and nothing in gas. If I was paying electric it would have added about $45 to my monthly bill. So basically nothing. So suddenly people that were looking at $25,000 cars are now looking at a $35,000 Tesla and the math still makes sense.
Overall, good discussionÖ.

1. I was talking more about the consumer side of the equation. $7,500 is a sizeable credit and tax credits are perks for the rich. If the Trump admin took away the $7,500 credit next month, EV sales would slide.

2. Thatís if Tesla hits their targets, which they havenít been that great at doing historically.

Forbes Welcome



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Tesla is already so far ahead here that it's basically a done deal. Elon has leaked info on a V3 supercharger that will be well over 350kW. That would effectively give you an 80% charge in 5 minutes. That's about on par with a gas car.
That would be a game changer, but whatís the cost? Also, whatís the scale?


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They won't, at least I don't think they will. The internal combustion engine is a relic. New technologies are cool but almost all of them add even more complexity to an already complex system. An engine has thousands of parts, hundreds of which move and then an equally (if not more) complex transmission attached to it. That entire drivetrain is going the way of Old Yeller.
Internal Combustion Engines are pretty damn reliable, but the new technologies are ripe for issues. Iíll agree with you there. I still donít think internal combustion engines are going anywhere anytime soon without gasoline prices raising drastically.
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Old 01-04-2017, 07:34 PM   #44
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Ill start you off myself with a swift kick in the ol google box....

https://cleantechnica.com/2016/05/11...rs-break-grid

last paragraph....

"Electric cars arenít going to break the grid. Anyone who says so isnít doing the math."

WOW its like that article was talking directly to YOU!

In his beast Foghorn Leghorn voice -
"Son, I say Son, you ain't gittin me. I said WIRE SIZE, not ability to generate more power than can be delivered".

Math.
24 houses on a block in California subdivision which has experienced multiple rolling brown outs over the last few summers, as is fairly common in California if you've ever been there. I've been in several over the years.

What size wire do you need to FEED the subdivision at peak air conditioning times when 14 people come home from work and plug in cars that draw current like an arc welder? That's right - brown out conditions when one's voltage drops in the dirt. Ohms law - volts drop, amps go up. Amps = current. Wire that was fine at normal current suddenly overheats at low voltage?

The answer is BIGGER.

And who's going to be 'asked' to foot the bill to put that wire in? You. Me. Everyone. Even if we don't want to.
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Old 01-04-2017, 07:55 PM   #45
 
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In his beast Foghorn Leghorn voice -
"Son, I say Son, you ain't gittin me. I said WIRE SIZE, not ability to generate more power than can be delivered".

Math.
24 houses on a block in California subdivision which has experienced multiple rolling brown outs over the last few summers, as is fairly common in California if you've ever been there. I've been in several over the years.

What size wire do you need to FEED the subdivision at peak air conditioning times when 14 people come home from work and plug in cars that draw current like an arc welder? That's right - brown out conditions when one's voltage drops in the dirt. Ohms law - volts drop, amps go up. Amps = current. Wire that was fine at normal current suddenly overheats at low voltage?

The answer is BIGGER.

And who's going to be 'asked' to foot the bill to put that wire in? You. Me. Everyone. Even if we don't want to.
Overreacting a bit much?

Twenty four houses huh? out of how many millions of dwellings in CA? I bet more are lost to fire than this castrophic blackouts that caused a whopping 24 houses to go black....

MATH yup read above "Electric cars aren’t going to break the grid. Anyone who says so isn’t doing the math"



I highly doubt the grid is the issue or ever will be but far more likely the houses built wont be able to handle the load! Dont get the 2 confused or blame the grid because some subdivision or residential construction company cheaped out......
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Old 01-04-2017, 09:13 PM   #46
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Looking at your last post, you didn't get the obvious concept that that was ONE block for MATH purposes (14/24 = a little over half). Now, extrapolate that to a single suburb of 100,000 residents that REALLY get affected by the rolling brown outs. Now extrapolate that out to the millions of dwellings you referenced in California.
"Gosh, 24 total houses burn". Sum total of how you perceived the concept/equation? I can't believe you're that dense. You're trolling.

Hundreds of thousands of houses.

I read the link posted and noticed nothing mentioned about the ampacity capabilities of those grids. The builders didn't cheap out, the grid was never designed for it and must therefore be upgraded at substantial additional costs. Go into any 1930's unrestored bungalow. Look at the fusebox. How many plugs are there in each room? Not many.
Gonna cost a lot to rewire that house to run modern day appliances.

Same goes for rewiring cities and your tax dollars and somebody paying for it because the electric grid is too big to fail and EVERYONE MUST have adequate service to every dwelling.
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Old 01-04-2017, 09:30 PM   #47
 
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So umm how many times has this actually happened with how many hybrids that were plugged in?

Until it becomes a consistent issue or a pattern i call bullshit on this whole OMG Grids going to explode scenario.

youre going nuts about a whole lot of "what if this happened"

1930s fuse box? click your heels toto its 2017 now.....we do things a little different now...

Edit: all it would take is more effecient batteries to throw your whole grid dooms day scenario in the trash can. Every single hybrid auto maker on the planet is working towards that exact goal.....

remember when computers took up a whole room? remember when a cellphone was packed in abag?

point is "necessity is the mother of invention"

hybrid vehicle tech is very very young and has a long long way to go

Last edited by 98GrandPrixIraqVet; 01-04-2017 at 09:56 PM Reason: d
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Old 01-05-2017, 09:31 AM   #48
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Zen's ancestors probably complained about having to pay for the roads when the horseless carriage gained popularity.
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Old 01-05-2017, 11:32 AM   #49
 
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Mike K, you crazy!
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Old 01-06-2017, 05:19 PM   #50
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Yes! That's what they say!
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